[ghsc-seminars] GHSC Brown Bag, TOMORROW, Thursday, June 21st @ 10am: Alessandro Valentini, University of Chieti, Italy

[Oliver Boyd]

poWERFUL: Wasatch Earthquake Rupture Forecast using UCERF3 methodoLogy

Alessandro Valentini

University of Chieti, Italy

The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) is one of the most studied normal fault systems in the world and one of the most hazardous faults in the United States. Here, we develop an earthquake rupture forecast for the WFZ that quantifies the probability of all potentially damaging earthquakes for a given timespan and above some magnitude threshold. We evaluate the long-term rate of ruptures on the WFZ that satisfy fault slip rates and paleoseismic event rates, adapting standard inverse theory used in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 (UCERF3). Our goal is to evaluate the impact that segmentation models have on seismic hazard. We develop and test three segmentation models, which penalize ruptures crossing various structural complexities. We evaluate the change in hazard from these models and compare our results to differences observed using alternative model parameters such slip rate and magnitude scaling relations. 

 

Thursday, June 21th, 2018, 10 am (Mountain Time)
USGS, 1711 Illinois Street, Golden, CO
5th Floor Conference Room (rm 535)

*Note: Please arrive ~5 minutes early and bring photo ID for airport-style security measures now in place at the USGS building.

Thank you,
GHSC Seminar Committee 

Mirus, Ben - bbmirus at usgs.gov
Josh Rigler - erigler at usgs.gov
Oliver Boyd - olboyd at usgs.gov 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://geohazards.usgs.gov/pipermail/ghsc-seminars/attachments/20180620/84eeba19/attachment.html>