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span.gmail-m1479565434165998917m7066959450357385387m-8586038301793833330m2174399009776966998gmail-m3536024389969136014gmail-m6564323528617604720gmail-m-3202867471772006187m-3474394390109531423m-6180755618559776416m-6692829955733685287gmail-m-19207
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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt;text-align:justify;line-height:15.0pt;text-autospace:none'><b><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:red'>poWERFUL: Wasatch Earthquake Rupture Forecast using UCERF3 methodoLogy</span></b><b><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:red'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt;text-align:justify;line-height:15.0pt;text-autospace:none'><b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Alessandro Valentini<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt;text-align:justify;line-height:15.0pt;text-autospace:none'><i><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black'>University of Chieti, Italy</span></i><b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) is one of the most studied normal fault systems in the world and one of the most hazardous faults in the United States. Here, we develop an earthquake rupture forecast for the WFZ that quantifies the probability of all potentially damaging earthquakes for a given timespan and above some magnitude threshold. We evaluate the long-term rate of ruptures on the WFZ that satisfy fault slip rates and paleoseismic event rates, adapting standard inverse theory used in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 (UCERF3). Our goal is to evaluate the impact that segmentation models have on seismic hazard. We develop and test three segmentation models, which penalize ruptures crossing various structural complexities. We evaluate the change in hazard from these models and compare our results to differences observed using alternative model parameters such slip rate and magnitude scaling relations. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Thursday, June 21<sup>th</sup>, 2018, 10 am (Mountain Time)</span></b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><br><b>USGS, 1711 Illinois Street, Golden, CO</b><br><b>5<sup>th</sup> Floor Conference Room (rm 535)</b><br><br>*Note: Please arrive <u>~5 minutes early</u> and <u>bring photo ID</u> for airport-style security measures now in place at the USGS building.<br><br>Thank you,<br><span class="gmail-m1479565434165998917m7066959450357385387m-8586038301793833330m2174399009776966998gmail-m3536024389969136014gmail-m6564323528617604720gmail-m-3202867471772006187m-3474394390109531423m-6180755618559776416m-6692829955733685287gmail-m-19207">GHSC</span> <span class="gmail-m1479565434165998917m7066959450357385387m-8586038301793833330m2174399009776966998gmail-m3536024389969136014gmail-m6564323528617604720gmail-m-3202867471772006187m-3474394390109531423m-6180755618559776416m-6692829955733685287gmail-m-19207">Seminar</span> Committee <br><br>Mirus, Ben - <a href="mailto:bbmirus@usgs.gov" target="_blank">bbmirus@usgs.gov</a><br>Josh Rigler - <a href="mailto:erigler@usgs.gov" target="_blank">erigler@usgs.gov</a><br>Oliver Boyd - <a href="mailto:oboyd@usgs.gov" target="_blank">olboyd@usgs.gov</a></span> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></body></html>