[ghsc-seminars] GHSC Seminar—TOMORROW, Kevin Milner, University of Southern California, Tuesday May 3rd, 10–11am MDT

[Boyd, Oliver S]

Current and future directions in PSHA: updates to the inversion-based approach, short-term time-dependence, and fully deterministic physics-based non-ergodic PSHA

Speaker: Kevin Milner
               Southern California Earthquake Center
               University of Southern California
Location: Hybrid (room 204 and online)
Date/Time: TOMORROW, Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022, 10–11am MDT

Abstract: Ground motions radiated by earthquakes pose a significant hazard to human life and the built environment, but despite decades of research and increased model complexity, uncertainties in hazard estimates have yet to significantly decrease. I will present on recent progress and future directions aimed at improving hazard estimations by better characterizing (and eventually reducing) uncertainties. First, we are currently updating the inversion-based approach to earthquake rupture forecasting aimed at model simplification and better sampling of uncertainties. Extending this methodology to the entire western U.S. (and perhaps elsewhere) in the 2023 NSHM update will also lay the groundwork for a future operational earthquake forecasting model that can quantify short-term changes in hazard due to recent seismicity. Finally, I will describe a new prototype seismic hazard model that is constructed with fully deterministic physics-based models. That model is non-ergodic and forecasts lower long-term hazard for many sites in the Los Angeles region than empirical ergodic models due to its characterization of repeated source, site, and path effects, while still containing a comparable amount of total ground motion variability.

[cid:008c799f-35fd-46e9-ba9b-41e1f510a318]
Bio: Kevin Milner is a researcher and computer scientist at the Southern California Earthquake Center at the University of Southern California (USC). He graduated with a computer science degree in 2007, worked on SHA for 15 years since, and earned a PhD in Geological Sciences from USC in 2020 working with Professor Thomas Jordan. He is the lead developer for the OpenSHA seismic hazard analysis (SHA) platform and the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecasts. His research interests include physics-based SHA using deterministic ground motion simulations and short-term, time-dependent hazard assessments.


GHSC Seminar Committee: Oliver Boyd <olboyd at usgs.gov>, Josh Rigler <erigler at usgs.gov>, Francis Rengers <frengers at usgs.gov>

________________________________________________________________________________
Microsoft Teams meeting
Join on your computer or mobile app
Click here to join the meeting<https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/ap/t-59584e83/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fteams.microsoft.com%2Fl%2Fmeetup-join%2F19%253ameeting_OTBhNmE0MTgtMDgyNy00OGMzLWFkNTItNWMxZDkzN2NjYTAy%2540thread.v2%2F0%3Fcontext%3D%257b%2522Tid%2522%253a%25220693b5ba-4b18-4d7b-9341-f32f400a5494%2522%252c%2522Oid%2522%253a%2522d6329638-ca90-40d3-9ece-4674ffcbda6a%2522%257d&data=05%7C01%7Cghsc-seminars%40geohazards.usgs.gov%7Ced306022dd794803ee2708da2c5fead3%7C0693b5ba4b184d7b9341f32f400a5494%7C0%7C0%7C637871087716508559%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=40mYlHdVbLEEHe3p%2B%2F26%2B7DFjgAPL8PB%2F7ONBZMuR1g%3D&reserved=0>
Learn More<https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Faka.ms%2FJoinTeamsMeeting&data=05%7C01%7Cghsc-seminars%40geohazards.usgs.gov%7Ced306022dd794803ee2708da2c5fead3%7C0693b5ba4b184d7b9341f32f400a5494%7C0%7C0%7C637871087716508559%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=pMyy0PG1mP7MYk48Z5k7K6MGPwu64%2FuwKKI24xRY8C0%3D&reserved=0> | Meeting options<https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fteams.microsoft.com%2FmeetingOptions%2F%3ForganizerId%3Dd6329638-ca90-40d3-9ece-4674ffcbda6a%26tenantId%3D0693b5ba-4b18-4d7b-9341-f32f400a5494%26threadId%3D19_meeting_OTBhNmE0MTgtMDgyNy00OGMzLWFkNTItNWMxZDkzN2NjYTAy%40thread.v2%26messageId%3D0%26language%3Den-US&data=05%7C01%7Cghsc-seminars%40geohazards.usgs.gov%7Ced306022dd794803ee2708da2c5fead3%7C0693b5ba4b184d7b9341f32f400a5494%7C0%7C0%7C637871087716665192%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=TRxQm7PzAcJV4MsX2k7P6Xexw4CXuB50R7Jgl7qSZdk%3D&reserved=0>
________________________________________________________________________________
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://geohazards.usgs.gov/pipermail/ghsc-seminars/attachments/20220502/251cd6d7/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: not available
Type: text/calendar
Size: 7867 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://geohazards.usgs.gov/pipermail/ghsc-seminars/attachments/20220502/251cd6d7/attachment-0001.ics>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Milner-map_2s_RotD50_2in50_interpolated.png
Type: image/png
Size: 1065861 bytes
Desc: Milner-map_2s_RotD50_2in50_interpolated.png
URL: <http://geohazards.usgs.gov/pipermail/ghsc-seminars/attachments/20220502/251cd6d7/attachment-0001.png>