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<span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px; box-sizing:border-box"><span style="margin:0px"><b style="font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif; font-size:16pt; background-color:rgb(255,255,255); color:black!important">Current
and future directions in PSHA: updates to the inversion-based approach, short-term time-dependence, and fully deterministic physics-based non-ergodic PSHA</b>
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<div style="margin:0px; background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="margin:0px; font-size:12pt; color:rgb(0,0,0)">Speaker: Kevin Milner</span></div>
<div style="margin:0px; background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="margin:0px; font-size:12pt; color:rgb(0,0,0)"> Southern California Earthquake Center</span></div>
<div style="margin:0px; background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="margin:0px; font-size:12pt; color:rgb(0,0,0)"> University of Southern California</span></div>
<div style="margin:0px; background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="margin:0px; font-size:12pt; color:rgb(0,0,0)">Location: Hybrid (room 204 and online)<br>
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<div style="margin:0px; background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="margin:0px; font-size:12pt; color:rgb(0,0,0)">Date/Time:
<b>TOMORROW</b>, Tuesday</span><span style="margin:0px; font-size:12pt; color:rgb(0,0,0)">, May 3<span><sup>rd</sup></span>, 2022, 10–11am MDT</span><br>
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<div style="margin:0px; background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="margin:0px; font-size:12pt; color:rgb(0,0,0)">Abstract: Ground motions radiated by earthquakes pose a significant hazard to human life and the built environment, but despite decades of
research and increased model complexity, uncertainties in hazard estimates have yet to significantly decrease. I will present on recent progress and future directions aimed at improving hazard estimations by better characterizing (and eventually reducing)
uncertainties. First, we are currently updating the inversion-based approach to earthquake rupture forecasting aimed at model simplification and better sampling of uncertainties. Extending this methodology to the entire western U.S. (and perhaps elsewhere)
in the 2023 NSHM update will also lay the groundwork for a future operational earthquake forecasting model that can quantify short-term changes in hazard due to recent seismicity. Finally, I will describe a new prototype seismic hazard model that is constructed
with fully deterministic physics-based models. That model is non-ergodic and forecasts lower long-term hazard for many sites in the Los Angeles region than empirical ergodic models due to its characterization of repeated source, site, and path effects, while
still containing a comparable amount of total ground motion variability.
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<img data-imagetype="AttachmentByCid" explicitlogon="gs-ghsc-seminars@doimspp.onmicrosoft.com" data-custom="AAMkADUyYjhhNDdjLTM2ZjItNDU1YS04MzJiLTZiMzk5YzA1ZWQ3ZAFRAAgI2iyX3djAAEYAAAAA%2BtEuMRRToUiWJiHM%2BXZQbAcA%2BNwATNGyGUiyQJkf%2FkWmOgAAAAABDQAA%2BNwATNGyGUiyQJkf%2FkWmOgAB%2BbY6TAAAEAESABAAC2C6O%2FB%2BWUaWjPbJA7s%2B8Q%3D%3D" naturalheight="0" naturalwidth="0" src="cid:008c799f-35fd-46e9-ba9b-41e1f510a318"><br>
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<div style="margin:0px; background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:12pt; color:rgb(0,0,0)">Bio</span><span style="font-size:12pt; color:rgb(0,0,0)">: Kevin Milner is a researcher and computer scientist at the Southern California Earthquake Center
at the University of Southern California (USC). He graduated with a computer science degree in 2007, worked on SHA for 15 years since, and earned a PhD in Geological Sciences from USC in 2020 working with Professor Thomas Jordan. He is the lead developer for
the OpenSHA seismic hazard analysis (SHA) platform and the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecasts. His research interests include physics-based SHA using deterministic ground motion simulations and short-term, time-dependent hazard assessments.</span><br>
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<span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin:0px; font-size:12pt; font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif; color:rgb(50,49,48)">GHSC Seminar Committee:</span><span style="margin:0px; font-size:12pt; color:rgb(50,49,48)"><span style="margin:0px; font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif"> </span></span><span style="margin:0px; font-size:12pt; font-family:"Calibri Light","Helvetica Light",sans-serif; color:rgb(50,49,48)">Oliver
Boyd <olboyd@usgs.gov>, Josh Rigler <erigler@usgs.gov>, Francis Rengers <frengers@usgs.gov></span></span></p>
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