[ghsc-seminars] GHSC Seminar *HYBRID* - Max Schneider, USGS, March 7, 2023

[Llenos, Andrea L]

Identifying User Needs for Aftershock Forecast Information and Products

Speaker: Max Schneider
                 Earthquake Science Center, USGS
Location: HYBRID (online and in-person at 1711 Illinois St, Golden, CO, Rm 204)
                  *Non-USGS visitors welcome! Please bring a photo ID and arrive early to allow time to go through security*
Date/Time: Tuesday, March 7, 2023 10-11am MST

Abstract: The U.S.G.S. releases aftershock forecasts following large (M5+) earthquakes in the U.S. and associated territories. Forecasts show the expected number (and range) of aftershocks in a specified area for various magnitude thresholds and time durations. Forecasts are released using a product template that contains tables and text. Visualizing these aftershock forecasts can more effectively communicate this information. In particular, we seek to identify which forecast visualizations (including maps) can serve a variety of user groups. First, we hold workshops with members of target user groups, including emergency managers, civil engineers, critical infrastructure operators, the media, science communicators, and public health officials. In these workshops, users perform small-group activities to elicit specific user needs on the dimensions of aftershock forecast information needed by their role (informational needs) and how this information would optimally be displayed (product needs). Following these elicitation activities, we facilitate a discussion to understand perspectives about how well candidate graphics may meet user needs. Workshops and experiments will be held with participants from the U.S., Mexico, and El Salvador to identify cross-cultural components of effective forecast communication. We present preliminary results from several user workshops and discuss next steps in the research agenda. Following the workshops, we will develop a suite of forecast graphics and maps that align with user informational and product needs, and test these in a task-based user experiment. Such an experiment can reveal the characteristics of forecast products that can effectively communicate the forecast across user groups.

Bio: Max Schneider is a Research Statistician (Mendenhall postdoctoral fellow) at the Earthquake Science Center in the USGS. He focuses on the intersection between statistics, seismology and data visualization for risk communication. Current projects include user-centered and cross-cultural design for aftershock forecasts, design for seismic hazard maps based on color and visualization criteria, and statistical testing of spatiotemporal earthquake forecasts against observations. He is excited for collaboration opportunities related to statistical modelling & testing for geohazards data - and their rigorous visualization for various audiences.

[cid:02f1b39e-7e26-4959-992b-293ebf381b96]

For questions, comments, or speaker suggestions, please contact the GHSC Seminar Committee: Andrea Llenos <allenos at usgs.gov>, Benjamin Murphy <bmurphy at usgs.gov>, Lauren Schaefer <lschaefer at usgs.gov>


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