[ghsc-seminars] GHSC Seminar *TOMORROW* *HYBRID* - Jessica Velasquez, Moody's RMS, February 21, 2023

[Llenos, Andrea L]

Implications of fault uncertainties on risk: The “cost” of the unknown

Speaker: Jessica Velasquez
                 Moody's RMS
Location: HYBRID (online and in-person at 1711 Illinois St, Golden, CO, Rm 204)
                  *Non-USGS visitors welcome! Please bring a photo ID and arrive early to allow time to go through security*
Date/Time: Tuesday, February 21, 2023 10-11am MST

Abstract: As hazard and risk modeling evolve, so has our idea of faults and the danger they can pose. The USGS has been at the forefront of many of these conversations. As we move toward a more relaxed view of segmentation and increasingly incorporate multi-fault ruptures in hazard models, how can we take into account the uncertainties in the underlying fault databases themselves? I will by no means attempt to explore the entire uncertainty space, but rather focus in on common problems we face in less-studied areas of the world for our risk models and the decisions we have to make when data is scarce and/or incomplete. Here, I also propose a non-inversion-based methodology to model multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures and the impact these decisions can have on risk. I also invite the scientific community (you!) to make improvements on the suggestions presented here!

Bio: Jessica is a seismic source modeler for Moody’s RMS. She has been with Moody’s RMS for almost eight years and holds her BS in Geology from the University of South Florida and her PhD in Geological Sciences from the University of Southern California. During her time at USC, she studied source properties of large earthquakes and spatiotemporal earthquake distributions. Since joining Moody’s RMS, Jessica has worked on developing source models for Canada, India, Taiwan, Central and South America, and the Caribbean.

For questions, comments, or speaker suggestions, please contact the GHSC Seminar Committee: Andrea Llenos <allenos at usgs.gov>, Benjamin Murphy <bmurphy at usgs.gov>, Lauren Schaefer <lschaefer at usgs.gov>

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