[ghsc-seminars] GHSC Seminar - Ken Campbell

Tue Oct 5 19:08:39 UTC 2021

Proposed methodology for estimating the magnitude at which subduction megathrust ground motions and source dimensions exhibit a break in magnitude scaling

Speaker: Ken Campbell, Core Logic, Inc.
Location: Online/virtual (Teams Meeting<https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fteams.microsoft.com%2Fl%2Fmeetup-join%2F19%253ameeting_YTJlMjk3OWQtY2EwNS00ZmExLTkxMDktMTdmNDYwM2NhOTE4%2540thread.v2%2F0%3Fcontext%3D%257b%2522Tid%2522%253a%25220693b5ba-4b18-4d7b-9341-f32f400a5494%2522%252c%2522Oid%2522%253a%2522d6329638-ca90-40d3-9ece-4674ffcbda6a%2522%257d&data=04%7C01%7Cghsc-seminars%40geohazards.usgs.gov%7C4d4ddb306de3490a25ac08d988338a4f%7C0693b5ba4b184d7b9341f32f400a5494%7C0%7C0%7C637690577204555426%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=YfHzx3kDraXk0DJe9Ef9QJ6N0PEh7eDEivjAJcueG4A%3D&reserved=0>)
Date/Time: Tuesday October 12th, 2021, at 10am MDT
Related: https://doi.org/10.1177%2F8755293019899957
Note: Ken is planning to join a less formal, possibly technical, follow-up conversation at Thursday's "Brown Bag"<https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fteams.microsoft.com%2Fl%2Fmeetup-join%2F19%253ameeting_NTczYTlkZWMtNjVkZi00ZGRlLThlZjAtZjI0YjIzZWI1NjJh%2540thread.v2%2F0%3Fcontext%3D%257b%2522Tid%2522%253a%25220693b5ba-4b18-4d7b-9341-f32f400a5494%2522%252c%2522Oid%2522%253a%25223690b60b-a285-455e-a6b4-4e27033b41ed%2522%257d&data=04%7C01%7Cghsc-seminars%40geohazards.usgs.gov%7C4d4ddb306de3490a25ac08d988338a4f%7C0693b5ba4b184d7b9341f32f400a5494%7C0%7C0%7C637690577204555426%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=6rs5AINsvgixj6GrxoT28qt9%2FqtbRZeJDljQbrrKNdI%3D&reserved=0> discussion at 1pm.

Abstract: In this talk, I propose a method for estimating the magnitude at which subduction megathrust earthquakes are expected to exhibit a break in magnitude scaling of both seismic source dimensions and earthquake ground motions. The methodology is demonstrated by applying it to 79 global subduction zones defined in the literature, including Cascadia. Breakpoint magnitude is estimated from seismogenic interface widths, empirical source scaling relations, and aspect ratios of physically unbounded earthquake ruptures and their uncertainties. The concept stems from the well-established observation that source-dimension and ground motion scaling decreases for shallow continental (primarily strike-slip) earthquakes when rupture exceeds the seismogenic width of the fault. Although a scaling break for megathrust earthquakes is difficult to observe empirically, all of the instrumentally recorded historical M>8.7 mega-earthquakes have occurred on subduction zones with M_B approximately 8.5 (8.1–8.9), consistent with an observed break in source scaling relations derived from these same events. The breakpoint magnitudes derived in this study can be used to constrain the magnitude at which the scaling of ground motion is expected to decrease in subduction ground motion prediction equations.

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Bio: Kenneth Campbell received a Ph.D. in geotechnical and earthquake engineering in 1977 from the University of California at Los Angeles. He currently serves half time as Principle, Science & Analytics in the seismic hazard modeling group of CoreLogic Inc. as part of its Global Risk division. He also does independent consulting in engineering seismology and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) through his company Kenneth W Campbell Consulting LLC. He has been with CoreLogic and its predecessors EQECAT, ABS Consulting, and EQE International since 1992. He spent seven years as a Research Engineer with the National Seismic Hazards Mapping Program at the USGS in Golden, Colorado. He has worked for several engineering consulting companies including J.H. Wiggins Co., LeRoy Crandall & Associates, TERA Corp., and Dames & Moore. He also spent a short time at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. All told, Dr. Campbell has 49 years of professional experience in technical management, engineering, consulting, and research in the fields of engineering seismology, strong ground motion, seismic hazards evaluation, and geotechnical earthquake engineering. He has lead projects to assess probabilistic seismic hazards and develop seismic design criteria for important structures worldwide for the construction, petroleum, and nuclear industries. He is internationally recognized for his development of ground-motion prediction equations and, along with Yousef Bozorgnia, is one of the teams that participated in PEER’s Next Generation Attenuation NGA-West1, NGA-West2, NGA-East, and NGA-Subduction projects. Dr. Campbell has provided expert testimony at numerous nuclear and insurance hearings and has served as a seismic hazard and ground motion expert on scientific and review panels for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and various industry PSHA studies. He has served on Participatory Peer Review Panels (PPRPs) for SHAAC Level 3 and 4 PSHA studies of the high-level waste repository at Yucca Mtn. (DOE), dams in British Columbia (BC Hydro), nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Switzerland (PEGASOS), the Hanford DOE site, where he served as Chair, and southwestern U.S. NPPs (SWUS). He has also participated in other SSHAC projects as a Proponent Expert for Thyspunt NPP in South Africa and a green field NPP in Utah (Blue Castle). Dr. Campbell has authored or coauthored over 200 publications.

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