[ghsc-seminars] GHSC Seminar TOMORROW, Wednesday, Sep 18th @ 10 am - Jack Baker, Stanford

[Boyd, Oliver]

*Consideration of Network Effects in Identifying Critical Components of
Transportation Infrastructure*


*Jack Baker**Stanford University*

This talk presents a study of seismic risk to a complex transportation
system, with the goal of identifying communities that are disproportionally
impacted by disruptions, and components whose failure has a
disproportionate impact on system performance. The San Francisco Bay Area
transportation system is considered as a case study. The network serves
seven million residents and consists of 32,858 road segments, 3152 bridges
subject to damage, and 43 transit modes. A refined model of this network’s
performance under damage, incorporating features such as transportation
mode choice and dynamic demand, is used to predict disruption. Disruption
is caused by earthquake shaking, where a full suite of earthquake scenarios
in the region (with associated occurrence rates) are considered in order to
obtain a fully probabilistic description of risk. Several strategies to
manage the computational cost of this analysis are discussed. Then a number
of disruption metrics are presented to provide insight into the disruption
risks faced by residents of the region. Mode-destination accessibility, a
performance metric of interest to urban planners, is used to evaluate the
potential disruption to individual users of the transportation system. By
linking models for seismic hazards, engineering performance of bridges, and
resulting user impacts, we are able to translate engineering knowledge into
metrics that are usable by urban planners responsible for long-term
management of the transportation system’s risk.




*Wednesday, September 18th, 201910-11am  (Mountain Time)USGS, 1711 Illinois
Street, Golden, COEntry Level Seminar Room (204)*

*Note: Please arrive *~5 minutes early* and *bring photo ID* for
airport-style security measures now in place at the USGS building.

Thank you,
GHSC Seminar Committee

Ben Mirus - bbmirus at usgs.gov
Josh Rigler - erigler at usgs.gov
Oliver Boyd - olboyd at usgs.gov
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