[ghsc-seminars] Correction: GHSC Seminar, Tuesday May 15th @ 2pm: Matthew Thomas, USGS, Golden

[Mirus, Benjamin]

*"**Towards a physically based tool for probabilistic assessment of
rainfall-induced landsliding**"*

*Matthew A. Thomas*
*Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellow*
*USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center Golden, CO*

Providing accurate warning in advance of rainfall-induced landsliding can
help reduce loss of life and property, but requires knowledge of hillslope
wetness and future rainfall conditions. However, most regional landslide
warning systems consider only the rainfall characteristics that were
measured during past landslide events. These are used to define a set of
rainfall conditions, or a threshold, for which landsliding should be
expected. When these empirical thresholds do not perform well for
subsequent landsliding events, it can be difficult to diagnose the problem
because the underlying cause of slope failure is not considered explicitly.
To address this limitation, we explored the use of synthetic rainfall to
generate thousands of possible storm patterns and coupled them with a
physics-based hydrology and slope stability model for various antecedent
soil wetness scenarios to analyze pore-water pressure and factor of safety
metrics. We used these metrics to generate thresholds that can be employed
to assess landsliding potential for any given combination of antecedent
wetness and storm size. When applied to San Francisco Bay region, we found
the results consistent with events known to have caused historical and
recent widespread landsliding. Therefore, our modeling approach, which is
structured around plausible ranges of measurable soil hydraulic and
mechanical properties and can incorporate the impact of rainfall forcings
beyond what may be available in monitoring records, can inform the next
generation of warning systems for rainfall-induced landsliding.

*Tuesday, May 15th**, 2018*
*2-3*
*pm*
*​  (Mountain Time)*
*USGS, 1711 Illinois Street, Golden, CO*
*Entry Level Seminar Room*

*Note: Please arrive *~5 minutes early* and *bring photo ID* for
airport-style security measures now in place at the USGS building.

Thank you,
GHSC Seminar Committee

Mirus, Ben - bbmirus at usgs.gov
Josh Rigler - erigler at usgs.gov
Oliver Boyd - olboyd at usgs.gov <oboyd at usgs.gov>

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