[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] Article on Central U.S. Earthquake hazard by expert panel

[Russell L Wheeler]

Some people may have interpreted the end of the ScienceNOW article to mean 
that the USGS hazard evaluation methodology failed to predict the Haiti, 
Wenchuan, and Japan earthquakes. The methodology was not designed to 
predict the time, size and location of the next big earthquake, and the 
USGS does not use it that way.

The probabilistic methods that the USGS and other organizations use to 
estimate hazard are not predictions. Instead, the methods give estimates 
of the strength of shaking that we'd expect (at specified odds) to be 
exceeded in the next 50  years at some particular place. The specified 
odds are usually about one in ten or one in fifty. If a particular place 
is shaken at or above the estimated level, the cause could be either a big 
earthquake far away, or a smaller one nearby. Also, the expected shaking 
could occur at any time from tomorrow to 50 years from now...or not at 
all, if it beats the odds. Nothing in a probabilistic hazard estimate 
specifies the size, time, and location of the next big earthquake.

Making a prediction and estimating the hazard are fundamentally different 
in purposes, assumptions, calculations, results, and uses. A failure to 
get either of them right has no bearing on the validity of the other one.
-----------------------------------------
Rus Wheeler
research geologist
phone: (303) 273-8589
fax: (303) 273-8600
email: wheeler at usgs.gov

paper mail:
Russell L. Wheeler
U.S. Geological Survey
P.O. Box 25046, M.S. 966
Lakewood, CO 80225

physical address, FedEx, UPS:
1711 Illinois St., rm. 442
Golden, CO 80401



From:
Oliver Boyd <olboyd at usgs.gov>
To:
"ceus-earthquake-hazards at geohazards.usgs.gov" 
<ceus-earthquake-hazards at geohazards.usgs.gov>
Date:
04/27/2011 10:09 AM
Subject:
[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] Article on Central U.S. Earthquake hazard     by 
expert panel
Sent by:
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.gov



Dear CEUS earthquake hazards email list subscribers,
Below is a link to a short article about the findings of a National 
Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council expert panel regarding central 
United States earthquake hazard.

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2011/04/expert-panel-central-us-faces.html


Regards,
Oliver

-- 

Oliver Boyd, Ph.D.
Research Geophysicist
U.S. Geological Survey
3876 Central Ave
Memphis, TN
Phone: (901) 678-3463
FAX: (901) 678-4897_______________________________________________
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