[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] FW: Report on estimatingmaximum magnitude in the Central and Eastern US.

[mike_worksafetech at charter.net]

Our company protects the "mission critical" aspects of our clients' data centers.  If it isn't critical to their operation, it doesn't get protected.  It's all about uptime and data survivability mixed with low probability/high impact nature of earthquakes.  So, bottom line for our clients, if it could happen tomorrow or the day after then how will it affect the operability of our company?  To me, that is the type of arbiter for which you make the decision.
--
Michael Reilly
Worksafe Technologies
636-724-2075
636-448-3464 (cell)

---- "Krinitzsky wrote: 
> John, Critical means the consequences of failure are intolerable. For that
> the design should be based on a simple deterministic assessment, not
> complicated by errors from the unknowns in probability. For non-critical
> construction, or non-critical elements in a critical structure, probability
> can be used for a cost/risk benefit.  But keep in mind that probability is
> not a reliable method. It is too full of uncertainties that it pretends to
> give values for, but the values remain uncertain.
> 
> Ellis 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.gov
> [mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.gov] On Behalf Of
> Keifer, John D
> Sent: Wednesday, May 27, 2009 10:06 AM
> To: Central and Eastern U.S. Earthquake Hazards Listserve
> Subject: Re: [CEUS-earthquake-hazards] FW: Report on estimatingmaximum
> magnitude in the Central and Eastern US.
> 
> Ellis, it would still seem that everything depends on the criticality of the
> structure. How would you define criticality.  Also, while you are right that
> no one can tell you that a 10,000 year earthquake won't happen tomorrow, the
> longer the time span the lower the probability that it will happen tomorrow.
> 
> John
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.gov
> [mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.gov] On Behalf Of
> Krinitzsky, Ellis L ERDC-GSL-MS Emeritus
> Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2009 1:53 PM
> To: Central and Eastern U.S. Earthquake Hazards Listserve
> Subject: Re: [CEUS-earthquake-hazards] FW: Report on estimating maximum
> magnitude in the Central and Eastern US.
> 
> That is a wrong assumption. For a critical structure, protection must be
> regardless of time. That is the essential quality of a deterministic
> evaluation. 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.gov
> [mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.gov] On Behalf Of
> Wang, Zhenming
> Sent: Thursday, May 07, 2009 12:11 PM
> To: Central and Eastern U.S. Earthquake Hazards Listserve
> Subject: [CEUS-earthquake-hazards] FW: Report on estimating maximum magnitude
> in the Central and Eastern US.
> 
> Time is a fundamental element that must be considered in any activity.
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Krinitzsky, Ellis L ERDC-GSL-MS Emeritus
> [mailto:Ellis.L.Krinitzsky at usace.army.mil] 
> Sent: Thursday, May 07, 2009 10:01 AM
> To: Central and Eastern U.S. Earthquake Hazards Listserve
> Cc: Wang, Zhenming
> Subject: RE: [CEUS-earthquake-hazards] Report on estimating maximum magnitude
> in the Central and Eastern US.
> 
> Everything depends on the criticality of the structure. If the structure is
> critical (the consequences of failure are intolerable) then one must design
> for the maximum earthquake regardless of temporality. Otherwise, it is proper
> to design on a cost-risk basis.
> 
> Nobody can say that a 1,000-year earthquake or a 10,000-year, both based on
> 150-year record, will not happen tomorrow. The 10,000-year earthquake,
> assuming the time estimate has any meaning, could just as well be more likely
> to happen.
> 
> Ellis Krinitzsky
> Corps of Engineers, ERDC, Vicksburg  
> 
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