[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] Report on estimating maximum magnitude in the Central and Eastern US.

[Krinitzsky, Ellis L ERDC-GSL-MS Emeritus]

Everything depends on the criticality of the structure. If the structure is
critical (the consequences of failure are intolerable) then one must design
for the maximum earthquake regardless of temporality. Otherwise, it is proper
to design on a cost-risk basis.

Nobody can say that a 1,000-year earthquake or a 10,000-year, both based on
150-year record, will not happen tomorrow. The 10,000-year earthquake,
assuming the time estimate has any meaning, could just as well be more likely
to happen.

Ellis Krinitzsky
Corps of Engineers, ERDC, Vicksburg  

-----Original Message-----
From: ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.gov
[mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.gov] On Behalf Of
Wang, Zhenming
Sent: Thursday, May 07, 2009 8:11 AM
To: Central and Eastern U.S. Earthquake Hazards Listserve
Subject: Re: [CEUS-earthquake-hazards] Report on estimating maximum magnitude
in the Central and Eastern US.

The maximum magnitude earthquake is one of the key parameters that affect
seismic hazard estimates the most in the central and eastern United States.
However, the occurrence frequency of the maximum magnitude earthquake is also
important for seismic hazard assessment. For example, an M7.5 earthquake with
a recurrence interval of 1,000 years will have a significantly different
implication for engineering design of a facility than the same earthquake
with a recurrence interval of 10,000 years. Therefore, the temporal
characteristics of the maximum magnitude earthquake must also be considered
in the determination of the magnitude.

 

Zhenming

 

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Zhenming Wang, PhD, PE

Head, Geologic Hazards Section

Kentucky Geological Survey

Adjunct Professor

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences

228 Mining and Mineral Resources Building

University of Kentucky

Lexington, KY 40506

Phone: 859-257-5500ext142

email: zmwang at uky.edu

www.uky.edu/KGS/geologichazards/

www.uky.edu/AS/Geology/faculty/wang.html

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