[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] no "right" answer

[Rob Olshansky]

Number of deaths over time would be one way to describe the effects 
of disasters, but not the only one.  Large urban disasters affect 
people's lives in many ways--deaths, injuries, income loss, economic 
disruption, social disruption, permanent changes in the quality of 
life for entire regions, etc.  Daily occurrences such as auto 
accidents are bad, too. And crimes against women. And severe weather. 
We should care about all of these things.  But big urban disasters 
disproportionately affect the lives of concentrated populations, and, 
in turn, affect other parts of the nation. They are worthy of our attention.

--Rob Olshansky

At 07:58 PM 2/13/2008, you wrote:
>Both are problems, but in the US severe weather kills about 500 people per
>year
>and earthquakes kill about 10. Another way to look at this is that every 6
>years severe weather has the same net effect as the 1906 San Francisco
>earthquake.
>
>Seth Stein
>William Deering Professor
>Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
>1850 Campus Drive
>Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208
>(847) 491-5265 FAX: (847) 491-8060 E-MAIL: seth at earth.northwestern.edu
>http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth
>
>On Wed, 13 Feb 2008 WrightLa at usa.redcross.org wrote:
>
> > When earthquakes don't happen, tornadoes are a bigger problem.
> >
> >
> >
> > The recent loss of life due to tornadoes is horribly tragic, and not to
> > be belittled by any means, but the loss of life that could be caused by
> > an 1811 quake in the NMSZ beggars the imagination.
> >
> >
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >
> >> From: ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.gov
> > [mailto:ceus-
> >
> >> earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.go On Behalf Of Seth Stein
> >
> >> Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2008 11:20 AM
> >
> >> To: Chris Fostel
> >
> >> Cc: 'Chris Harold Cramer (ccramer)'; ceus-earthquake-
> >
> >> hazards at geohazards.usgs.gov
> >
> >> Subject: Re: [CEUS-earthquake-hazards] no "right" answer
> >
> >>
> >
> >> Chris,
> >
> >>
> >
> >> I certainly appreciate your position.
> >
> >>
> >
> >> My view would be that precisely because of the societal issues it's
> >
> >> worth trying to assess and explain what we know and how well we know
> > it.
> >
> >>
> >
> >> I think a good guideline is what I've read that Colin Powell, as
> >
> >> Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said to his military
> > intelligence
> >
> >> briefers: "Tell me what you know; tell me what you don't know; tell me
> >
> >> what you think; and make sure I know the difference."
> >
> >>
> >
> >> Seth Stein
> >
> >> William Deering Professor
> >
> >> Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
> >
> >> 1850 Campus Drive
> >
> >> Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208
> >
> >> (847) 491-5265 FAX: (847) 491-8060 E-MAIL: seth at earth.northwestern.edu
> >
> >> http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth
> >
> >>
> >
> >>
> >
> >>
> >
> >>   Fostel wrote:
> >
> >>> Seth
> >
> >>>
> >
> >>> As an academic exercise it might be acceptable to fall back on, "We
> > have
> >
> >>> lots of models that give different numbers and there's little reason
> > to
> >
> >>> believe that any of them are particularly good or better than the
> >
> >> others."
> >
> >>>
> >
> >>> Of course no one can predict earthquakes, there are too many
> > variables
> >
> >>> and too little data.  However, please remember that real dollars
> > must be
> >
> >>> spent complying with building codes and real lives can be put at
> > risk if
> >
> >>> the building codes are inadequate for the task of limiting
> > earthquake
> >
> >>> damage.
> >
> >>>
> >
> >>> There is real value in trying to find the "best available" method to
> >
> >>> estimate the potential for earthquakes and the levels of the shaking
> >
> >>> that may be incurred.
> >
> >>>
> >
> >>> Chris Fostel
> >
> >>> Seismic Safety Worker bee
> >
> >>> .
> >
> >>
> >
> >> --
> >
> >> Seth Stein
> >
> >> William Deering Professor
> >
> >> Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
> >
> >> 1850 Campus Drive
> >
> >> Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208
> >
> >> (847) 491-5265 FAX: (847) 491-8060 E-MAIL: seth at earth.northwestern.edu
> >
> >> http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth
> >
> >> _______________________________________________
> >
> >> CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards mailing list
> >
> >> CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards at geohazards.usgs.gov
> >
> >> https://geohazards.usgs.gov/mailman/listinfo/ceus-earthquake-hazards
> >
> >> _______________________________________________
> >
> >> CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards mailing list
> >
> >> CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards at geohazards.usgs.gov
> >
> >> https://geohazards.usgs.gov/mailman/listinfo/ceus-earthquake-hazards
> >
> >
>_______________________________________________
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Robert B. Olshansky
Professor
BAUP Program Coordinator
Dept. of Urban and Regional Planning
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
611 Taft Drive, Champaign, IL 61820
ph 217.333.8703