[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] no "right" answer

[WrightLa at usa.redcross.org]

When earthquakes don't happen, tornadoes are a bigger problem.

 

The recent loss of life due to tornadoes is horribly tragic, and not to
be belittled by any means, but the loss of life that could be caused by
an 1811 quake in the NMSZ beggars the imagination.

 

> -----Original Message-----

> From: ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.gov
[mailto:ceus-

> earthquake-hazards-bounces at geohazards.usgs.go On Behalf Of Seth Stein

> Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2008 11:20 AM

> To: Chris Fostel

> Cc: 'Chris Harold Cramer (ccramer)'; ceus-earthquake-

> hazards at geohazards.usgs.gov

> Subject: Re: [CEUS-earthquake-hazards] no "right" answer

> 

> Chris,

> 

> I certainly appreciate your position.

> 

> My view would be that precisely because of the societal issues it's

> worth trying to assess and explain what we know and how well we know
it.

> 

> I think a good guideline is what I've read that Colin Powell, as

> Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said to his military
intelligence

> briefers: "Tell me what you know; tell me what you don't know; tell me

> what you think; and make sure I know the difference."

> 

> Seth Stein

> William Deering Professor

> Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences

> 1850 Campus Drive

> Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208

> (847) 491-5265 FAX: (847) 491-8060 E-MAIL: seth at earth.northwestern.edu

> http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth

> 

> 

> 

>   Fostel wrote:

> > Seth

> >

> > As an academic exercise it might be acceptable to fall back on, "We
have

> > lots of models that give different numbers and there's little reason
to

> > believe that any of them are particularly good or better than the

> others."

> >

> > Of course no one can predict earthquakes, there are too many
variables

> > and too little data.  However, please remember that real dollars
must be

> > spent complying with building codes and real lives can be put at
risk if

> > the building codes are inadequate for the task of limiting
earthquake

> > damage.

> >

> > There is real value in trying to find the "best available" method to

> > estimate the potential for earthquakes and the levels of the shaking

> > that may be incurred.

> >

> > Chris Fostel

> > Seismic Safety Worker bee

> > .

> 

> --

> Seth Stein

> William Deering Professor

> Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences

> 1850 Campus Drive

> Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208

> (847) 491-5265 FAX: (847) 491-8060 E-MAIL: seth at earth.northwestern.edu

> http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth

> _______________________________________________

> CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards mailing list

> CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards at geohazards.usgs.gov

> https://geohazards.usgs.gov/mailman/listinfo/ceus-earthquake-hazards

> _______________________________________________

> CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards mailing list

> CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards at geohazards.usgs.gov

> https://geohazards.usgs.gov/mailman/listinfo/ceus-earthquake-hazards

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://geohazards.usgs.gov/pipermail/ceus-earthquake-hazards/attachments/20080213/b054063a/attachment.html