[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] no "right" answer

[Seth Stein]

Chris,

I certainly appreciate your position.

My view would be that precisely because of the societal issues it's
worth trying to assess and explain what we know and how well we know it.

I think a good guideline is what I've read that Colin Powell, as 
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said to his military intelligence 
briefers: "Tell me what you know; tell me what you don't know; tell me 
what you think; and make sure I know the difference."

Seth Stein
William Deering Professor
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
1850 Campus Drive
Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208
(847) 491-5265 FAX: (847) 491-8060 E-MAIL: seth at earth.northwestern.edu
http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth



  Fostel wrote:
> Seth
>  
> As an academic exercise it might be acceptable to fall back on, "We have 
> lots of models that give different numbers and there's little reason to 
> believe that any of them are particularly good or better than the others."
> 
> Of course no one can predict earthquakes, there are too many variables 
> and too little data.  However, please remember that real dollars must be 
> spent complying with building codes and real lives can be put at risk if 
> the building codes are inadequate for the task of limiting earthquake 
> damage. 
>  
> There is real value in trying to find the "best available" method to 
> estimate the potential for earthquakes and the levels of the shaking 
> that may be incurred.
>  
> Chris Fostel
> Seismic Safety Worker bee
> .

-- 
Seth Stein
William Deering Professor
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
1850 Campus Drive
Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208
(847) 491-5265 FAX: (847) 491-8060 E-MAIL: seth at earth.northwestern.edu
http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth