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<div style="" class="ContentPasted0"><span style="font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;"><b>Assessing the performance of PSHA using seismic intensity products</b></span><br>
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<div style="" class="ContentPasted0"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Speaker:
</b></span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Leah Salditch</span></div>
<div style="" class="ContentPasted0"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Geologic Hazards Science Center</span></div>
<div style="" class="ContentPasted0"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> USGS</span></div>
<div style="" class="ContentPasted0"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Location:
</b></span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;">HYBRID (online and in-person at 1711 Illinois St, Golden, CO, Rm 204)</span></div>
<div style="" class="ContentPasted0"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> *Non-USGS visitors welcome! Please bring a photo ID and arrive early to allow time to go through security*</span></div>
<div style="" class="ContentPasted0"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Date/Time:
</b></span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tuesday, March 28, 2023 10-11AM MDT</span></div>
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<div style="" class="ContentPasted0"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b class="ContentPasted1">Abstract:</b><span class="ContentPasted1"> How well does the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) forecast ground
shaking? Using past observations in a hindcast approach, I evaluate hazard models via performance metrics. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) based on current practice consistently overpredict historical observations of seismic intensity. Independently
prepared PSHA for the U.S., Japan, Italy, Nepal, and France all display this trend. Numerical studies indicate that in an ideal case the observed shaking is equally likely to be above or below predictions, and that observations should be closer to the prediction
as observation time increases. Yet, I will show that hazard maps primarily overpredict historical observations of shaking and no consistent improvement appears with longer observation times. However, when comparing PSHA with modern intensity products like
Did You Feel It? and ShakeMap, I find substantial improvement in performance metrics, despite their relatively short observation periods. This talk will explore some possible reasons for these observed differences, which may have important implications for
hazard assessment, and highlight future directions indicated by these results. </span>
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<div style="" class="ContentPasted0"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="ContentPasted1"><span class="ContentPasted2"><b>Bio: </b>Leah Salditch is a Mendenhall Post-Doctoral Fellow at the USGS Geological
Hazards Science Center in Golden, CO. Her research at GHSC focuses on assessing the performance of the National Seismic Hazard Model by leveraging flagship products like DYFI? and ShakeMap. To improve the performance of the NSHM, she is studying non-ergodic
ground motion models and improvements to ground-motion-intensity-conversion-equations. She received a Ph.D. in Earth and Planetary Sciences and an M.S. in Statistics from Northwestern University in 2021 where she studied earthquake hazards and recurrence models.
She was the recipient of the 2021 AGU Natural Hazards Section Graduate Research Award, and currently serves on several committees for the Seismological Society of America.</span></span></span></div>
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<div style=""><font color="#201f1e" face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">For questions, comments, or speaker suggestions, please contact the </span></font><b style="color:inherit; font-family:inherit; font-size:12pt; font-style:inherit; font-variant-ligatures:inherit; font-variant-caps:inherit"><span style="font-weight:400"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">GHSC
Seminar Committee: Andrea Llenos <allenos@usgs.gov>, Benjamin Murphy <bmurphy@usgs.gov>, Lauren Schaefer <lschaefer@usgs.gov></span></span></b></div>
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