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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><b><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:red'>THE NEW ITALIAN NATIONAL SEISMIC HAZARD MODEL </span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Carlo MELETTI<sup>1</sup></span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>In collaboration with: </span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Warner MARZOCCHI<sup>1</sup>,</span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Bruno PACE<sup>2</sup></span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Francesco VISINI<sup>1</sup></span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>MPS16 Working Group</span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><sup><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>1</span></sup></i><i><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, L’Aquila, Italy</span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><sup><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>2</span></sup></i><i><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Università degli Studi di Chieti-Pescara Disputer Department, Chieti, Italy</span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;background:white'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>In 2015 the Seismic Hazard Centre (Centro Pericolosità Sismica – CPS) of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) was commissioned to engage and coordinate the national scientific community with the aim of elaborating a new reference seismic hazard model, mainly designed to update the seismic code. The Civil Protection Department (DPC) funded the project; the main requirements for the model were defined throughout meetings with national experts in earthquake engineering that will then participate to the revision of the building code. The CPS outlined a roadmap to release within three years a significantly renewed PSHA model, with regard to both the updated input elements and the strategies to be followed. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Since the beginning, CPS fixed some key constraints that had to be honoured when building a seismic hazard model for practical purposes. These points, which basically aim to guarantee a large participation and the scientific and non-scientific consensus, can be summarized as follows: (i) the use of international standards according to the state of the art in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) (e.g. SHAAC, 1993); (ii) open and transparent procedures that guarantee totally reproducible outcomes; (iii) the use of outputs to be approved by the stakeholders; (iv) the involvement of Italian scientific community as large as possible in proposing data, models and approaches; (v) a full and coherent exploration and representation of the epistemic uncertainty in the final seismic hazard model; (vi) the implementation of a robust testing phase, and of an elicitation session with national and international independent experts, in order to check the reliability of each component of the seismic hazard model.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Following a public call, about 150 people from universities and research institutions have been involved in the project.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The activities were organized in 6 tasks: T1) project management, T2) input data, T3) seismicity models, T4) ground motion and intensity predictive equations (GMPEs and IPEs), T5) computation and rendering, T6) testing.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>T1 planned the activities and managed the other 5 tasks to ensure achievements of the Project scopes. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>T2 selected the most updated information about historical and instrumental seismicity, seismogenic faults, and deformation (both from seismicity and geodetic data) and compiled the necessary databases. The task released 15 deliverables, shared with all the participants.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>T3 elaborated the seismicity models in terms of classic source areas, fault sources and gridded seismicity based on different approaches, with associated seismicity rates. Each earthquake rate model has to be reproducible, according a full description of its “making of”. Moreover, modellers have to explore the epistemic uncertainty related to their model; this step is crucial to estimate an overall epistemic uncertainty of the final model, which includes the uncertainty of each model and the uncertainty among models.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>T4 selected the most recent models accounting for their tectonic suitability and forecasting performance. The forecasting performance of each GMPE has been evaluated through the comparison with accelerometric records available in the Italian (itaca.mi.ingv.it) and European (esm.mi.ingv.it) strong-motion databases. In this way, each GMPE has been ranked according to different specific metrics, so that the best performing GMPEs can be identified.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>T5 identified the code OpenQuake (www.openquake.org) for calculation. It is open source and we had a large interaction with the IT team in order to modify or integrate the code, as well as to ask for the development of new, dedicated functions.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>T6 performed statistical procedures to test, with the available data, the whole seismic hazard models, and single components such as the seismicity models and the GMPEs. T6 also organised the elicitation session and finally weight the different models.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:6.0pt;text-align:justify;punctuation-wrap:simple;text-autospace:none;vertical-align:baseline'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The MPS16 model was implemented also according the suggestions of a revision panel (5 Italian experts selected by DPC) that was informed every 2 months about the activities of CPS. The release of the final model is scheduled for December 2018.</span><o:p></o:p></p><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Friday, June 22nd, 2018, 2 pm</span></b> <b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>(Mountain Time)</span></b><br><b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>USGS, 1711 Illinois Street, Golden, CO</span></b><br><b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Entry Level <span class="m1078387891240064748gmail-m1479565434165998917m7066959450357385387m-8586038301793833330m2174399009776966998gmail-m3536024389969136014gmail-m6564323528617604720gmail-m-3202867471772006187m-3474394390109531423m-6180755618559776416m-669282995573">Seminar</span> Room (204)</span></b><br><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><br></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>*Note: Please arrive <u>~5 minutes early</u> and <u>bring photo ID</u> for airport-style security measures now in place at the USGS building.<br><br>Thank you,<br><span class="m1078387891240064748gmail-m1479565434165998917m7066959450357385387m-8586038301793833330m2174399009776966998gmail-m3536024389969136014gmail-m6564323528617604720gmail-m-3202867471772006187m-3474394390109531423m-6180755618559776416m-669282995573">GHSC</span> <span class="m1078387891240064748gmail-m1479565434165998917m7066959450357385387m-8586038301793833330m2174399009776966998gmail-m3536024389969136014gmail-m6564323528617604720gmail-m-3202867471772006187m-3474394390109531423m-6180755618559776416m-669282995573">Seminar</span> Committee <br><br>Mirus, Ben - <a href="mailto:bbmirus@usgs.gov" target="_blank">bbmirus@usgs.gov</a><br>Josh Rigler - <a href="mailto:erigler@usgs.gov" target="_blank">erigler@usgs.gov</a><br>Oliver Boyd - <a href="mailto:oboyd@usgs.gov" target="_blank">olboyd@usgs.gov</a></span><o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>