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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:red'>LONG-TERM RATE OF EARTHQUAKE RUPTURES IN COMPLEX FAULT SYSTEMS</span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Francesco VISINI<sup>1</sup>, </span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>In collaboration with: </span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Alessandro VALENTINI<sup>2</sup>, </span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Thomas CHARTIER<sup>3,4</sup>, </span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Oona SCOTTI<sup>4</sup>, </span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Bruno PACE<sup>2</sup></span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><sup><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>1</span></sup></i><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, L’Aquila, Italy</span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><sup><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>2</span></sup></i><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Università degli Studi di Chieti-Pescara Disputer Department, Chieti, Italy</span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><sup><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>3</span></sup></i><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris, Geosciences Department, Paris, France</span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><sup><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>4</span></sup></i><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Institut de Radioprotection et Sûretét Nucléaire, Paris, France</span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Use of faults in seismic hazard models allows capturing the recurrence of large-magnitude events and therefore improve the reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). In the past decades, fault segmentation provided an important framework for quantifying fault-based PSHA. However, in the last years, complex coseismic ruptures (e.g. 2010 M 7.1 Canterbury, 2012 Mw 8.6 Sumatra, 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura, 2016 Mw 6.5 central Italy) imposed to pay particular attention to the treatment of all possible combinations of rupture scenarios for PSHA. Here we present two methodologies to model rate of ruptures along fault systems, one based on a floating rupture approach (FRESH) and another one based on assumed rupture scenarios (SUNFISH). They represent alternatives to SHERIFS, an approach recently proposed to go one step beyond the strictly-segmented one commonly used in Europe. Differences in the three approaches are related to the way slip rate, rupture geometries and MFD are modelled. To quantify differences between the three methodologies, we compared PSHA results based on geometries and slip rates of a fault system located in NE Italy, assuming a specified maximum magnitude and the same seismic moment rate target. Finally, we shown that the three methodologies are able to solve for the long-term rate of ruptures with resulting PSHA that reflect the fault system geometry and slip rates, without any assumption on segment boundaries. Using fault-based approaches in PSHA requires collecting as much local geological information as possible. Now that multi-fault rupture approaches are available, simplistic, uniform slip rate approaches along complex fault systems should be avoided to the benefit of local data collection, which should be strongly encouraged (fault slip rates should be locally evaluated, fault geometries should be studied).</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=IT style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Friday, June 19th, 2018, 11 am</span></b><span lang=IT> </span><b><span lang=IT style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>(Mountain Time)</span></b><span lang=IT><br></span><b><span lang=IT style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>USGS, 1711 Illinois Street, Golden, CO</span></b><span lang=IT><br></span><b><span lang=IT style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>5th Floor Conference Room (535)</span></b><span lang=IT><br></span><span lang=IT style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><br></span><span lang=IT style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>*Note: Please arrive <u>~5 minutes early</u> and <u>bring photo ID</u> for airport-style security measures now in place at the USGS building.<br><br>Thank you,<br><span class="m1078387891240064748gmail-m1479565434165998917m7066959450357385387m-8586038301793833330m2174399009776966998gmail-m3536024389969136014gmail-m6564323528617604720gmail-m-3202867471772006187m-3474394390109531423m-6180755618559776416m-669282995573">GHSC</span> <span class="m1078387891240064748gmail-m1479565434165998917m7066959450357385387m-8586038301793833330m2174399009776966998gmail-m3536024389969136014gmail-m6564323528617604720gmail-m-3202867471772006187m-3474394390109531423m-6180755618559776416m-669282995573">Seminar</span> Committee <br><br>Mirus, Ben - <a href="mailto:bbmirus@usgs.gov" target="_blank">bbmirus@usgs.gov</a><br>Josh Rigler - <a href="mailto:erigler@usgs.gov" target="_blank">erigler@usgs.gov</a><br>Oliver Boyd - <a href="mailto:oboyd@usgs.gov" target="_blank">olboyd@usgs.gov</a></span><o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>