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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Art,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>I think the bulletin board serves the
purposes well. I learn a lots from the discussions. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>First of all, all I have discussed through
the listserver are not personal, but the Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS)’s
positions and understandings on the USGS national seismic hazard maps. These
positions and understandings have been discussed with you and your colleagues in
the past several years through professional meetings and publications,
workshops, private meetings, and official letters. As discussed, making a
seismic hazard mitigation policy is a complicated process, but seismic hazard
assessment is the basis. KGS is focusing on the basic earthquake science
and seismic hazard assessment. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>What we found through the long and
difficult discussions are “that the national seismic hazard maps are </span></font>not
consistent with modern earthquake science, particularly their methodology
(probabilistic seismic hazard analysis – PSHA).” These are
the reasons why the maps are so difficult to understand and use. The mitigation
policies based on the national seismic hazard maps may not be scientifically
sound. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>As discussed, earthquake science is complex, particularly in the New
Madrid seismic zone. However, scientists (seismologists and geologists) should communicate
the earthquake science in a simple and understandable way. Often times, the earthquake
science is presented too complicated to be understood. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Thanks.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Zhenming </span></font><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
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face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center tabindex=-1>
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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'> Arthur D Frankel
[mailto:afrankel@usgs.gov] <br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Friday, February 15, 2008
11:19 AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> Wang, Zhenming<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b> ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.usgs.gov;
James Cobb; Keifer, John D<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE:
[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] reply to Joe Tomasello; buildings codes and
earthquake hazard</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><br>
</span></font><font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:sans-serif'>Zhenming,</span></font> <br>
<br>
<font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>
I am sure many people on the bulletin board are getting tired of these
exchanges. </span></font> <br>
<br>
<font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'> I
presented similar comparisons at the Applied Technology Council workshop in <st1:City
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Memphis</st1:place></st1:City> in March 2005. As
I recall, you and Joe Tomasello were in attendance. So I think you have
seen these comparisons. </span></font><br>
<br>
<font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>Of
course, I don't see any contradiction in what I've said. I think it is
reasonable to compare code values with the expected ground motions from the
next 1811-12 type earthquake and with ground motions estimated for the 1811-12
earthquakes using intensity observations.</span></font> <br>
<br>
<font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>
I think further discussion between us on these issues should be made off of the
bulletin board.</span></font> <br>
<br>
<font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>-Art</span></font>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>Art
Frankel<br>
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
Geological Survey<br>
MS 966, Box 25046<br>
DFC<br>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Denver</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">CO</st1:State>
<st1:PostalCode w:st="on">80225</st1:PostalCode></st1:place><br>
phone: 303-273-8556<br>
fax: 303-273-8600<br>
email: afrankel@usgs.gov</span></font> <br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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