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<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=579471117-13022008><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>To the simple question, the simple answer is, at Paducah
and Memphis, the M7.7 at New Madrid will be felt the same day. Maybe the
spatial-temporal question is, will there follow soon, within, say, a few
years, a significant event at Charlestown? That would aid planning for
Charleston.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=579471117-13022008><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=579471117-13022008><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>If disaster is 200 years away, there is no financial
incentive to pay more now. When the public hears it said that way,
they would vote no to expensive seismic retrofit when tornados are more
likely to occur. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=579471117-13022008><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=579471117-13022008><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2> When you only have a few points to work with. . .
statistics may not be the right tool, even though it is required for
presentation purposes.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=579471117-13022008><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=579471117-13022008><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>Thank you for including me in your discussion
chain.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=579471117-13022008><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>Mike Carney </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=579471117-13022008><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>Engineer.</FONT></SPAN></DIV><BR>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader lang=en-us dir=ltr align=left>
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<FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>From:</B>
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.usgs.gov
[mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.usgs.gov] <B>On Behalf Of
</B>Stephen C Harmsen<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, February 07, 2008 8:34
AM<BR><B>To:</B> Eugene S Schweig<BR><B>Cc:</B>
ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.usgs.gov;
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.usgs.gov<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re:
[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] alternative hazard maps<BR></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV></DIV><BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=2>While Buddy's response does point
out many relevant issues, I contend that Zhenming's question is not simple
but is in fact baffling.</FONT> <BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=2>How often are
ground motions observed depends on how many observers are present. The
populations of these cities increase with time, at least that is the trend for a
few centuries. Civil defense measures may evolve with time and we might hope
that before the next NMSZ major event occurs some effort will be made to
evacuate less seismically resistant buildings. People who live and work in these
identified buildings may leave these cities for awhile, so simple population
projections might not be valid. If we are talking about 200 years in the future,
we should hope that continued science and technology improvements will lessen
the number of observers at least the number of casualties. Those who want to
ride the wave should be welcomed to do so after sober assessment of their odds.
Then, there is the likelihood of several events in a short time span. Does an
observation of each count as one or as several? What about observations of
aftershocks? If the observer dies before he/she has a chance to report, does
his/her observation count? Do pets' observations count?</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT
face=sans-serif size=2>In the NMSZ events of 1811-1812 most people lived and
worked in 1-story buildings generally wood frame construction (how much sod?).
Now, the built environment is much different and the number of hostages to
vagaries of tall building response has increased. While there is considerable
inertia to seismic resistant design in many counties it is difficult to predict
how adequate the nation's and individual states' response to the seismic threat
will be over the next few centuries. The difficulty lies in the many societal
pressures that have been discussed in these various emails, what resources are
dedicated to which threats, and whose voice is heard. These are indeed
unpredictable factors. </FONT><BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=2><BR>Stephen
Harmsen<BR>Research Physical Scientist<BR>USGS <BR>(303) 273 8567<BR>mailing
address: USGS, Denver Federal Center, <BR>MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, CO
80225<BR><BR>USGS office (for overnight deliveries):<BR>1711 Illinois Street,
Golden, CO 80401<BR></FONT><BR><BR><BR>
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<TD width="40%"><FONT face=sans-serif size=1><B>Eugene S Schweig
<schweig@usgs.gov></B> </FONT><BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>Sent
by: ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.usgs.gov</FONT>
<P><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>02/07/2008 07:33 AM</FONT> </P>
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<DIV align=right><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>To</FONT></DIV>
<TD><FONT face=sans-serif
size=1>"ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.usgs.gov"
<ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.usgs.gov></FONT>
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<DIV align=right><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>cc</FONT></DIV>
<TD>
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<TD>
<DIV align=right><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>Subject</FONT></DIV>
<TD><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>Re: [CEUS-earthquake-hazards]
alternative hazard maps</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR>
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face=sans-serif size=2><BR>Zhenming,</FONT><FONT size=3> <BR></FONT><FONT
face=sans-serif size=2><BR>While your question is simple, it is also misleading.
If we could count on M 7.7 earthquakes happenning every 500 years, and we
could count on the ground motions always be the same at each of these locations
for a New Madrid event, and if a repeat of 1811-1812 were the only thing that
could cause that level of ground motions at each location, our leaders could go
to bed happy that it would be at lest 200 hundred years before they had to start
building safe buildings. Sadly, none of this is true. We have little
information on the regularity of earthquake timing. We know there can be
significant variation in the ground motions generated by the same size
earthquake from even to event because of a number of factors. We also know
that other earthquakes besides a repeat of the 1811-1812 earthquakes may
contribute to the possibility of large ground motions, particularly with
increasing distance from New Madrid. So while the question is simple, the
answer is not, which I am sure you already know.</FONT><FONT size=3>
<BR></FONT><FONT face=sans-serif size=2><BR>Buddy</FONT><FONT size=3>
</FONT><FONT face=sans-serif size=2><BR>Fading into the Central U.S.Seismic
Sunset</FONT><FONT size=3> </FONT><FONT face=sans-serif
size=2><BR>__________________________________________________________________<BR>Eugene
Schweig<BR>Chief Scientist<BR>Earth Surface Processes Team<BR>U.S. Geological
Survey<BR><BR>Denver Office:<BR>MS980 Federal Center
(303) 236-5344<BR>Denver, CO 80225-0046
Fax: (303)
236-5690<BR><BR>Memphis office:
<BR>3876 Central Ave., Ste. 2
(901) 678-4974<BR>MEMPHIS, TN 38152-3050
Fax: (901)
678-4897<BR>___________________________________________________________________<BR></FONT><FONT
size=3><BR><BR><BR></FONT>
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<TD width="37%"><FONT face=sans-serif size=1><B>"Wang, Zhenming"
<zmwang@email.uky.edu></B> <BR>Sent by:
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.usgs.gov</FONT><FONT size=3>
</FONT>
<P><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>02/07/08 07:24 AM</FONT><FONT size=3>
</FONT></P>
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<DIV align=right><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>To</FONT></DIV>
<TD width="86%"><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>Arthur D Frankel
<afrankel@usgs.gov>, Seth Stein
<seth@earth.northwestern.edu></FONT><FONT size=3> </FONT>
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<TD>
<DIV align=right><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>cc</FONT></DIV>
<TD><FONT face=sans-serif
size=1>"ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.usgs.gov"
<ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.usgs.gov></FONT><FONT
size=3> </FONT>
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<TD>
<DIV align=right><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>Subject</FONT></DIV>
<TD><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>Re: [CEUS-earthquake-hazards]
alternative hazard maps</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR><BR>
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width="50%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR><FONT
size=3><BR></FONT><FONT face=Arial color=#000080 size=2><BR></FONT><FONT
size=3> </FONT><FONT face=Arial color=#000080 size=2><BR>Here is a simple
question for every one: If an M7.7 earthquake occurs every 500 years in the New
Madrid seismic zone, how often will the ground motion generated by that
earthquake be observed in Memphis, St. Louis, or Paducah?</FONT><FONT size=3>
</FONT><FONT face=Arial color=#000080 size=2><BR></FONT><FONT
size=3> </FONT><FONT face=Arial color=#000080
size=2><BR>Thanks.</FONT><FONT size=3> </FONT><FONT face=Arial color=#000080
size=2><BR></FONT><FONT size=3> </FONT><FONT face=Arial color=#000080
size=2><BR>Zhenming <BR></FONT><FONT size=3> </FONT><FONT
size=2><TT>_______________________________________________<BR>CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards
mailing
list<BR>CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards@geohazards.usgs.gov<BR>https://geohazards.usgs.gov/mailman/listinfo/ceus-earthquake-hazards<BR></TT></FONT><BR></BODY></HTML>