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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Buddy,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>You are mixing the temporal measurement (occurrence
of earthquake or its consequence (ground motion) at a site in time) with the
spatial measurement (occurrence of earthquake or its consequence (ground
motion) at a site in space). <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>In time, one earthquake generates one
ground motion at a site. No earthquake, no ground motion. Poisson and non-Poisson
models that have been discussed are being used to predict earthquake behavior,
including uncertainty, in time. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>In space, “</span></font><font
size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>we</span></font><font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'> </span></font><font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>know there can be significant variation in the
ground motions generated by the same size earthquake from even to event because
of a number of factors.” </span></font><font size=2 color=navy
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>The factors
may include different locations and source parameters that vary in space. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>The temporal and spatial measurements are two
fundamental and critical elements for quantifying earthquake and seismic hazard.
The temporal and spatial measurements are also two basic elements of our society.
Mixing these two measurements one way or the other will cause problem.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Thanks.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Zhenming<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.usgs.gov
[mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.usgs.gov] <b><span
style='font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Eugene S Schweig<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Thursday, February 07, 2008
9:34 AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b>
ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.usgs.gov<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re:
[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] alternative hazard maps</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><br>
</span></font><font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:sans-serif'>Zhenming,</span></font> <br>
<br>
<font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>While
your question is simple, it is also misleading. If we could count on M
7.7 earthquakes happenning every 500 years, and we could count on the ground
motions always be the same at each of these locations for a New Madrid event,
and if a repeat of 1811-1812 were the only thing that could cause that level of
ground motions at each location, our leaders could go to bed happy that it
would be at lest 200 hundred years before they had to start building safe
buildings. Sadly, none of this is true. We have little information
on the regularity of earthquake timing. We know there can be significant
variation in the ground motions generated by the same size earthquake from even
to event because of a number of factors. We also know that other
earthquakes besides a repeat of the 1811-1812 earthquakes may contribute to the
possibility of large ground motions, particularly with increasing distance from
New Madrid. So while the question is simple, the answer is not, which I
am sure you already know.</span></font> <br>
<br>
<font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>Buddy</span></font>
<br>
<font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>Fading
into the Central U.S.Seismic Sunset</span></font> <br>
<font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>__________________________________________________________________<br>
Eugene Schweig<br>
Chief Scientist<br>
Earth Surface Processes Team<br>
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
Geological Survey<br>
<br>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Denver</st1:place></st1:City> Office:<br>
MS980 Federal Center
(303)
236-5344<br>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Denver</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">CO</st1:State>
<st1:PostalCode w:st="on">80225-0046</st1:PostalCode></st1:place>
Fax:
(303) 236-5690<br>
<br>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Memphis</st1:place></st1:City> office:
<br>
<st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">3876 Central Ave., Ste. 2</st1:address></st1:Street>
(901) 678-4974<br>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">MEMPHIS</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">TN</st1:State>
<st1:PostalCode w:st="on">38152-3050</st1:PostalCode></st1:place>
Fax: (901)
678-4897<br>
___________________________________________________________________<br>
<br>
</span></font><br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=1 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:
7.5pt;font-family:sans-serif;font-weight:bold'>"Wang, Zhenming"
<zmwang@email.uky.edu></span></font></b><font size=1 face=sans-serif><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:sans-serif'> </span></font><br>
<font size=1 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:sans-serif'>Sent
by: ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.usgs.gov</span></font> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p><font size=1 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:
sans-serif'>02/07/08 07:24 AM</span></font> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><font size=1
face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:sans-serif'>To</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
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<td valign=top style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=1 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:
7.5pt;font-family:sans-serif'>Arthur D Frankel <afrankel@usgs.gov>,
Seth Stein <seth@earth.northwestern.edu></span></font> <o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
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<p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><font size=1
face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:sans-serif'>cc</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=1 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:
7.5pt;font-family:sans-serif'>"ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.usgs.gov"
<ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.usgs.gov></span></font> <o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
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<p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><font size=1
face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:sans-serif'>Subject</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=1 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:
7.5pt;font-family:sans-serif'>Re: [CEUS-earthquake-hazards] alternative
hazard maps</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<td valign=top style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
</td>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><br>
<br>
</span></font><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font> <br>
<font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:navy'>Here is a simple question for every one: If an M7.7
earthquake occurs every 500 years in the New Madrid seismic zone, how often
will the ground motion generated by that earthquake be observed in <st1:City
w:st="on">Memphis</st1:City>, <st1:City w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:City>, or <st1:City
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Paducah</st1:place></st1:City>?</span></font> <br>
<font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:navy'> </span></font> <br>
<font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:navy'>Thanks.</span></font> <br>
<font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:navy'> </span></font> <br>
<font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:navy'>Zhenming </span></font><br>
<font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:navy'> </span></font> <o:p></o:p></p>
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