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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Dear </span></font><font color=navy><span
style='color:navy'>Laurence,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:navy'>You have brought up several good issues.
Here are my takes on some of the issues:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:navy'>1. “</span></font><font size=2
color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>One issue is what present science says about the known hazards from
earthquakes in the central US. As everyone who follows this topic knows, we are
learning more all the time, but there is still much to be learned about this.”<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>The New Madrid seismic zone is the biggest
concern in the CUS. Here are the basic facts we known: 1) At least three large
earthquakes in the range of M7 to 8 occurred in 1811-1812; 2) The paleo-seismic
studies suggest that the large earthquakes reoccurred about every 500 to 1,000
years in the past couple thousands of years and the locations of these large
earthquakes are consistent with current seismicity; 3) the estimated peak
ground acceleration (PGA) is about 0.2-0.3g (median) in Memphis, TN, and
0.25-0.35g (median) in Paducah, Ky. These PGAs are equivalent to MMI VIII (Bolt,
2003). The seismic hazard that is of safety concern can be measured as:1) M7-8
earthquake with a recurrence tine of 500-1,000 years in the New Madrid region;
2) 0.2-0.3g PGA in <st1:City w:st="on">Memphis</st1:City> and 0.25-0.35g PGA in
<st1:City w:st="on">Paducah</st1:City> with a recurrence time of 500-1,000
years; or 3) an MMI VIII in <st1:City w:st="on">Memphis</st1:City> and <st1:City
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Paducah</st1:place></st1:City> with a recurrence
time of 500-1,000 years. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>It should be noted that the recurrence
time or occurrence frequency of the earthquake or ground motion (a consequence
of earthquake) at a site is a very important parameter, particularly for risk
analysis. However, the recurrence time or occurrence frequency has been either
ignored or not used correctly. Therefore seismic hazard is determined by two
parameters: a level of hazard (</span></font><font face=Arial><span
style='font-family:Arial'>a certain magnitude or the phenomena generated by the
earthquake, such as surface rupture, <a
href="http://www.uky.edu/KGS/geologichazards/risks.htm#gm#gm"><span
style='text-decoration:none'>ground motion</span></a>, <a
href="http://www.uky.edu/KGS/geologichazards/risks.htm#gma#gma"><span
style='text-decoration:none'>ground-motion amplification</span></a>, <a
href="http://www.uky.edu/KGS/geologichazards/risks.htm#liq#liq"><span
style='text-decoration:none'>liquefaction</span></a>, and <a
href="http://www.uky.edu/KGS/geologichazards/risks.htm#landslide#landslide"><span
style='text-decoration:none'>induced-landslides</span></a>) and its recurrence
frequency (or interval).</span></font><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>2. “Still another topic is what the
present seismic risks to various elements of the local economy, local
infrastructure and national economy are assessed to be in the central US.”<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>The definition of seismic risk is broad
and subjective. The purpose of assessing seismic risk is to make policies for risk
reduction in comparison with all other risks. In a general term, risk </span></font><font
face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>is the probability (chance) of harm
if someone or something (vulnerability) is exposed to a hazard. In a
quantitative term, risk is defined by three parameters: probability, a level of
hazard, and exposure (time and asset). For example, in health sciences, risk is
defined as the likelihood (probability) of getting cancer if an average daily
dose of a hazardous substance (hazard level) is taken over a 70-year
lifetime. In the financial world, risk can be the probability of losing a
certain amount of money over a period.</span></font><font size=2 color=navy
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><font
face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>The figure below shows the 23 core
global risks estimated by the World Economic Forum (2007) over a 10-year
exposure time. This figure also shows how risk information is used for policy
decision making.</span></font><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p align=center style='text-align:center'><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><font
face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'><img border=0 width=533 height=538
id="_x0000_i1034" src="cid:image001.gif@01C85690.4B506B20"
alt="The 23 core global risks over a 10-year time frame estimated by World Economic Forum (2007)."><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p align=center style='text-align:center'><strong><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>The 23 core global risks over a
10-year time frame estimated by World Economic Forum (2007).</span></font></b></strong><font
face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Therefore, in a </span></font><font
face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>quantitative term, seismic risk is
defined as <u>the probability</u> of experiencing <u>a level of seismic hazard
or loss</u> for a given <u>exposure</u> (<u>time and asset</u>). Seismic risk
can be measured as a 5-10% probability of exceedance of a M7-8 earthquake in 50
years, a 5-10% probability of exceedance of </span></font><font size=2
color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>0.2-0.3g (median) in 50 years in <st1:City w:st="on">Memphis</st1:City>,
<st1:State w:st="on">TN</st1:State>, and 0.25-0.35g (median) in <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Paducah</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">Ky</st1:State></st1:place>,
or </span></font><font face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>a 5-10% probability
of exceedance of</span></font><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> MMI VIII in 50 years.
These risk calculations are based on 1)</span></font><font face=Arial><span
style='font-family:Arial'> time-independent [Poisson] model that could be used
to describe the occurrences of earthquakes; 2) an exposure (building)</span></font><font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'> with a life of 50 years. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Seismic hazard and risk are two fundamentally different
concepts. The relationship between seismic hazard and risk is complicated and
must be treated very cautiously. More importantly, the mitigation policies are
made based on seismic risk, not seismic hazard.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>3. “</span></font><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Another issue is what
public policy, if any, should be promulgated by the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region> government given the
present state of knowledge.” <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Example 1: Seismic hazard and risk
comparison between the New Madrid and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName
w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Bay</st1:PlaceType></st1:place>
areas. As shown in the following figure, the New Madrid area experienced a
similar MMI (MMI VIII) in comparison with that for the SF Bay area. This figure
seems to suggest the central US has a bigger problem. However, this is not
necessary true because another important parameter, <u>the occurrence frequency</u>,
is missing. In the bay area, the large earthquake occurs about every 100 years
(i.e., the 1906 SF and 1989 LP) and about 500-1,000 years in the New Madrid
area. In terms of hazard comparison, we have an M7.8/100-year recurrence vs.
M7.7/500-1,000-year recurrence, or MMI VIII/100-year recurrence vs. MMI VIII/500-1,000-year
recurrence. The hazard comparison may not be straight forward. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Let’s consider risk comparison by
putting two identical buildings with 50-year life in <st1:City w:st="on">San
Francisco</st1:City> and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Paducah</st1:place></st1:City>,
respectively. The risk for the building in SF is about 39% PE of an M7.8
earthquake or MMI VIII in 50 years, about 5-10% PE of an M7.7 earthquake or MMI
VIII in 50 years in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Paducah</st1:place></st1:City>.
This risk comparison makes it clear that a building will have a much higher
probability (4 to 8 times) of experiencing a similar earthquake or MMI in SF than
in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Paducah</st1:City></st1:place>. This
risk comparison implies that:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>1)<font size=1 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></font></span></span></font><![endif]><font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>It makes sense that the most mitigation efforts (resources) go to
CA, by taking into consideration the fact that there are much more exposures in
SF bay area (good policy).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><font
size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>2)<font size=1 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></font></span></span></font><![endif]><font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>It dose not make sense that the design ground motion for a building
in the New Madrid area is similar or even greater than that in the bay area. </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><img border=0 width=562 height=385
id="_x0000_i1036" src="cid:image002.gif@01C85690.4B506B20"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Example 2: hazard and risk comparisons
between earthquake, flood, and tornado in the central US. As shown in the
following figure, there are other natural hazards that occur much more
frequently in the central US. These comparisons suggest that seismic risk may
not be the highest in the central US. In other words, it may not be a good
policy to spend more resources on seismic hazard mitigation than other hazard
mitigations. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><img border=0 width=579 height=436
id="_x0000_i1040" src="cid:image005.gif@01C85690.4B506B20"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>4. “I would also say that while it
is difficult for engineers to justify structural requirements in excess of
those required by code to a building owner, it can be done, witness the design
requirements for the new Red Cross blood center in the St Louis area, which
significantly exceed those required by local code. That cost-benefit analysis
showed clearly that the Red Cross would benefit by such a decision, which was
why we elected that course of action independent of the local code
requirements.”</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>It may not be wise to have higher seismic design
requirements for the new Red Cross blood center in the <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">St Louis</st1:place></st1:City> area (considering seismic risk only).
Other risks should also be considered. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Thanks.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Zhenming<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center tabindex=-1>
</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
WrightLa@usa.redcross.org [mailto:WrightLa@usa.redcross.org] <br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Friday, January 11, 2008
1:24 PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> Wang, Zhenming;
rogersda@mst.edu; <st1:PersonName w:st="on">JT@ReavesFirm.com</st1:PersonName>;
ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b> seth@earth.northwestern.edu<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE:
[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] The balance</span></font><font size=3><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>To All:</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>speaking purely for myself and NOT the Red
Cross, I see several different issues being discussed here.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>As a Red Cross NHQ employee, and as a
structural engineer, I am interested in all of these issues.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>One issue is what present science says about
the known hazards from earthquakes in the central US. As everyone who follows
this topic knows, we are learning more all the time, but there is still much to
be learned about this.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Another issue is what public policy, if
any, should be promulgated by the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region> government given the
present state of knowledge.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><br>
Still another topic is what the present seismic risks to various elements of
the local economy, local infrastructure and national economy are assessed to be
in the central US.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><br>
Yet another issue is what, if anything, States and local government entities
should be doing WRT regulation of the building design process, and what level
of Federal compulsion is appropriate, if any.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Engineering cost-benefit analysis is a
tool that can be applied to assist in the evaluation of all of these issues,
but it is NOT the only tool, nor is it perfect.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>I would like, with the utmost respect to
all, to suggest that I, as an end user of the information being discussed,
would benefit from having each of the above topics discussed objectively, <b><span
style='font-weight:bold'>separately</span></b> and dispassionately. I
think it is fair to say that there is legitimate grounds for debate on
significant portions of all of the above issues, and the fact that there is
disagreement on these issues is not necessarily any reflection on the
ability or good will of any of the debaters. I’d like to see the
discussion continue on each of the issues above.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>I would also say that while it is
difficult for engineers to justify structural requirements in excess of those
required by code to a building owner, it can be done, witness the design
requirements for the new Red Cross blood center in the St Louis area, which
significantly exceed those required by local code. That cost-benefit analysis
showed clearly that the Red Cross would benefit by such a decision, which was
why we elected that course of action independent of the local code
requirements.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>Laurence M. Wright</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>Senior Project Engineer</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>Red Cross Manufacturing Engineering</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>202-303-4457 (o)</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>202-549-5843 (c)</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style='border:none;border-left:solid blue 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b>
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov
[mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov] <b><span
style='font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Wang, Zhenming<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Friday, January 11, 2008
8:09 AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> Rogers, David; Joe Tomasello;
ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b> Seth Stein<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re:
[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] The balance</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>I agree with David that any mitigation
policy should be debated openly. But so far, many of the policies made for
seismic hazard mitigation are not based on scientific facts and open
discussions. The society makes mitigation policies based on risk, not hazard
information. It would be helpful for making sound seismic hazard
mitigation policies if geo-scientists and engineers can define and discuss the
true seismic hazard and risk in the central US.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Zhenming</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center>
</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov
[mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov] <b><span
style='font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Rogers, David<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, January 09, 2008 6:01
PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> Joe Tomasello;
ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b> Seth Stein<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re:
[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] The balance</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Joe </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>This isn’t a new issue; the CA
Seismic Safety Commission has had to deal with these kinds of issues for years.
The figure I’d be suspicious of is the $110 billion being suggested by
the California Healthcare Association, which is a trade organization that
lobbies for favorable legislation on behalf of hospital owners and operators
– many of which are wealthy corporations. They consistently oppose
legislation that mandates increased government regulations or costs. They are
the same organization that fought against hospitals being required to have
their own onsite power generation back in the early 1960s, asserting that it
would be cost-prohibitive and never be utilized sufficiently to justify the
costs, etc. etc. And they had numbers that “proved”
their case, because CA hadn’t experienced a sizable earthquake near a
metropolitan area between 1906-71 (the utilization calculation would be very
different today, esp. with the summertime power brownouts). These sorts
of organizations and lobbyists always throw out huge dollar values to justify
their cases – e.g. if you put that regulation on us, it will put us out
of business and it will costs billions and billions of dollars, etc. etc.
There will be a cost, but what that actual cost will end up being is
usually inflated significantly by trade organizations when they are opposing
proposed legislation. That’s just the way the lobbying game is
played.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>We’ve dealt with a similar, but
smaller issues here in Missouri, whenever legislation is proposed (almost every
year) to require skilled care and convalescent facilities to furnish onsite
remote power generation -- they spend huge amounts of money to repress
such legislation, asserting that it will “bankrupt” them and that
their facilities are “barely scrapping by” because their patient
fees are controlled by Medicare, etc., etc., etc. That’s what the
SAY anyway ….. but, when you see the slick lawyers doing their lobbying,
you sort of get the felling that SOMEBODY is making enough money in the skilled
care facility business to hire high-powered lobbyists….
</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>So, there’s always two sides to
every tale. I would agree that, as engineers or planners, we should
always be examining the cost-benefit ratios. But, we should also realize
that the actual dollar losses incurred by a natural or man-caused disaster are
far beyond the figures predicted in FEMA models like HAZUS. Just look at the
economic impact of the 9/11 attacks; the two <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName
w:st="on">World</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Trade</st1:PlaceName>
<st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Center</st1:PlaceType></st1:place> towers are only a
tiny fraction of the actual economic loss caused by their collapse. </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>So, these issues should be debated out in
the open, realizing that most people come to the table with specific
agendas…..In raising that issue, your concern is valid.
</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Dave Rogers</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"><font size=2
color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>Missouri</span></font></st1:place></st1:State><font size=2
color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'> Seismic Safety Commission</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p><font size=2 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:navy'>J. David Rogers, Ph.D., P.E., R.G., C.E.G., C.H.G.<br>
Karl F. Hasselmann Chair in Geological Engineering<br>
Department of Geological Engineering<br>
129 McNutt Hall, <st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">1400 N. Bishop
Avenue</st1:address></st1:Street><br>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Missouri</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType
w:st="on">University</st1:PlaceType></st1:place> of Science & Technology<br>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Rolla</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">MO</st1:State>
<st1:PostalCode w:st="on">65409-0230</st1:PostalCode></st1:place><br>
(573) 341-6198 voice<br>
(573) 341-6935 fax<br>
E-mail: rogersda@mst.edu<br>
URL: www.mst.edu/~rogersda<br>
<br>
Formerly the University of Missouri-Rolla<br>
<br>
</span></font><font color=navy><span style='color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center>
</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov
[mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov] <b><span
style='font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Joe Tomasello<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, January 09, 2008
1:51 PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b>
ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b> 'Seth Stein'<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [CEUS-earthquake-hazards]
The balance</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>Buddy:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>I’d like to offer the following for your e-mail discussion group:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>Natural disasters such as earthquakes create complex situations for
policy makers. The difficulty lies in the balance between the costs of
mitigation and the actual risk. Failing this, policy makers could find
themselves dealing with unintended consequences such as those experienced by
the hospital industry in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>.
If it’s worth the expense in any one region it would be <st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State>;
but looking at the hospital industry in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>
we don’t see it.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>Earthquake risks in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>
are, to some degree, statistically predictable; being a near certainty that a
moderate to strong earthquake will occur somewhere on the west coast during a
single generation of the built environment. California attempted to balance
public safety with mandated seismic mitigation in a knee jerk reaction to the
1994 Northridge earthquake California’s Legislature passed Senate Bill
1953 (SB 1953). The bill was an unfunded mandate to retrofit, rebuild, or
close; a free lunch for <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>
taxpayer. However, over the past decade the consequences of the mandate caused
a once sound hospital system transform into one of the nation’s foremost
financial basket cases.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>As in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>,
policy makers in the New Madrid Seismic Zone are led to believe that earthquake
mitigation costs are small, having little effect on the built environment. <st1:State
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>’s
mitigation program entails retrofitting all acute care hospitals or re-building
nearly 70 million square feet. The pace of construction is limited to
approximately 1.5 million to 2 million square feet per year due in large part
to the ability of regulatory agencies to keep up. Furthermore it takes upward
of 10 years to design and build a new hospital. “The lengthy
process for review and approval of hospital construction and retrofitting
projects is far too long. Economic growth is being thwarted; jobs are being
lost; and patient safety is being compromised.”<a name="_ednref1"></a><a
href="#_edn1" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[i]</sup></span></a>
The result is that it will take nearly 30 years to complete all the
construction required by SB 1953. <a name="_ednref2"></a><a href="#_edn2"
title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[ii]</sup></span></a> The
extended deadline is 2013.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>The size and scope of most of these projects are very large and
expensive. Compliance could cost <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>
hospitals as much as $110 billion dollars. The original estimate assumed
that the number of patients and the number of beds would generally remain the
same. However, modern design standards are most effective with facilities
35% to 60% larger<a name="_ednref3"></a><a href="#_edn3" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[iii]</sup></span></a>. Thus, the scope of each
construction project will increase as will the overall cost; perhaps as much as
20%. <a name="_ednref4"></a><a href="#_edn4" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[iv]</sup></span></a> In <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State> construction costs are rising at
an annual rate of more than 14 percent above the Consumer Price Index resulting
in construction costs more than 40 percent higher for comparable facilities in
other states.<a name="_ednref5"></a><a href="#_edn5" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[v]</sup></span></a> In my view this increase is
likely to continue do to regulatory oversight, the limited number of qualified
contractors, as well as the annual inflation of material costs. In <st1:State
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>, a fully
furnished and equipped acute care facility (labor and materials) costs $1,000
per square foot. Since the SB 1953 mandates affect for-profit, non-profit
and publicly owned organizations most all projects will be financed.
Depending on the terms of the loan the cost in current dollars for an acute
care facility the square foot cost can exceed $2,800; comparatively normal
office construction in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:place></st1:State>
is roughly a third the cost per square foot.</span></font><font size=3><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>Looking at FEMA’s annualized earthquake losses<a name="_ednref6"></a><a
href="#_edn6" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[vi]</sup></span></a>
we find the relationship of Cost vs. Benefit even more lopsided. FEMA reports
that <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>
will experience a loss of approximately $3,167.5/$Million of infrastructure
each year as a result of earthquakes. Looking at the same 50 year period, <st1:State
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State> can expect to
lose approximately 15.8% of the present value of hospitals. Thus,
California’s acute care infrastructure, worth approximately $48 Billion
[my estimate - C. Duane Dauner, President and Chief Executive Officer,
California Healthcare Association, Statement “Heath Care Scene in
California,” May 10, 2001, suggested 24 Billion.], should expect a loss
of approximately $7.6 Billion due to earthquake. We find that <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State> is spending $110 Billion to
offset a loss of $7.6 Billion; a cost benefit relationship greater than
14. </span></font><font size=3><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Over the
past 10 years, we’ve asked FEMA for a </span></font>Cost vs. Benefit
analysis for the New Madrid Seismic Zone. So far we haven’t seen
anything that would come close to suggesting that the public would benefit
spending limited resources. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>There are a more subtle negative consequences resulting from forcing
acute care facilities to close because they don’t meet mandated
requirements. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>
is experiencing a critical closure of hospitals with the closure of over 50
hospitals in the 10 year period between 1995 and 2005. More than 3,000 acute
care beds have been removed from service between 2001 and 2005. In the five
year period prior (1995 to 1999) 23 hospitals closed. Unfunded mandated seismic
requirements are creating a stampede for funding, usually in the form of
bonds. The median credit ratio of <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>
hospitals had nosed dived to the junk-bond status. The money needed to
retro fit <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>
hospitals is drying up. <a name="_ednref7"></a><a href="#_edn7" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[vii]</sup></span></a> “Nobody can bear
the burden [of SB 1953 unfunded mandate]”<a name="_ednref8"></a><a
href="#_edn8" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[viii]</sup></span></a>
Here in the New Madrid Seismic Zone we’re told that the cost is
minimal. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>“Seismic upgrades are important. But mandating them during the
worst economic time in the history of <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>
hospitals is like ordering a homeowner to fix a dilapidated porch on a house
that's on fire. Right idea. Wrong time.”<a name="_ednref9"></a><a
href="#_edn9" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[ix]</sup></span></a>
How many doctors and nurses could have been hired in lieu of spending the money
on hospital infrastructure? Just how many lives will be saved? How many lives
will be lost because of the loss of acute care facilities? Who pays, the
bottomless pocket of the taxpayer? Each of the 35 million people in <st1:State
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State> will need to
pay $3,143 (per capita state and local taxes were roughly $1,600 in 1996).
Are the people of <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>
going to be willing to forfeit three times their current tax burden? <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>If the benefits (reduction of earthquake related economic loss or lives
lost) don’t outweigh the costs in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>,
how can they be justified in the New Madrid Seismic Zone? <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>Joseph Tomasello, PE</span></font></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on"><b><font
size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;font-weight:
bold'>5880 Ridge Bend Rd.</span></font></b></st1:address></st1:Street><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on"><b><font size=3
face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>Memphis</span></font></b></st1:City><b><font
size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;font-weight:
bold'>, <st1:State w:st="on">TN</st1:State> <st1:PostalCode w:st="on">38120</st1:PostalCode></span></font></b></st1:place><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>Phone:</span></font></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>(901) 761-2016 office</span></font></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>(901) 821-4968 direct</span></font></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>(901) 412-8217 mobile</span></font></b><o:p></o:p></p>
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<div id=edn1>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a name="_edn1"></a><a href="#_ednref1" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[i]</sup></span></a> <st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State>
Heathcare Association Statement on the Hospital Construction Plan Review and
Area Compliance Process before the <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>
Performance Review Commission, U.C. Riverside, August 13, 2004.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<div id=edn2>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a name="_edn2"></a><a href="#_ednref2" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[ii]</sup></span></a> Ibid., 4<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id=edn3>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a name="_edn3"></a><a href="#_ednref3" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[iii]</sup></span></a> Ibid., 41<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id=edn4>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a name="_edn4"></a><a href="#_ednref4" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[iv]</sup></span></a> Ibid., 8<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id=edn5>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a name="_edn5"></a><a href="#_ednref5" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[v]</sup></span></a> Ibid., 30<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id=edn6>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a name="_edn6"></a><a href="#_ednref6" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[vi]</sup></span></a> FEMA 366 Hazus
99 Estimated Annualized Earthquake Losses for the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region>, February 2001, 16<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id=edn7>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a name="_edn7"></a><a href="#_ednref7" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[vii]</sup></span></a> <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State> HealthCare Foundation, The
Financial Health of California Hospitals, June 2007, 2-13<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id=edn8>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a name="_edn8"></a><a href="#_ednref8" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[viii]</sup></span></a> Ibid., (interviews with
key unnamed health care leaders), B-6<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id=edn9>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a name="_edn9"></a><a href="#_ednref9" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[ix]</sup></span></a> The Press Democrat,
Another hospital falls, what killed <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Sutter</st1:PlaceName>
<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Medical</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Center</st1:PlaceType></st1:place>
– and what will it mean to families like mine, January 14, 2007<o:p></o:p></p>
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