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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Dear Laurence,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Even though blood bank is a special
structure, the principles on how to minimize risk or maximize benefit are the
same as for other buildings: all risks (natural and man-made) should be considered.
Therefore, a </span></font><font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:sans-serif'>0.16g spectral acceleration at 1.0s in <st1:City
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Memphis</st1:place></st1:City> may not be enough
if only seismic risk is considered. However, this design value may be fine if
all the risks are considered in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Memphis</st1:City></st1:place>.
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=sans-serif><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>I am not familiar with the code changes in
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:place></st1:State>.
Here is the information on the residential code changes in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:place></st1:State>.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"><font size=2
color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>Kentucky</span></font></st1:place></st1:State><font size=2
color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'> adopted IRC-2000 in 2002 (KRC-2002) without any revision to the
seismic provision. It was found that a site-specific geotechnical investigation
and structural design (E zone in IRC-2000) are required in several counties in
western <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:place></st1:State>
after the KRC-2002 took effect. This causes problems for those counties, <st1:PlaceName
w:st="on">McCracken</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">County</st1:PlaceType>
(where <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Paducah</st1:place></st1:City>
locates in) in particular. The design ground motion in the IRC-2000 was the
ground motion with 2% PE in 50 years (seismic risk). What is the ground motion
with 2% PE in 50 years? If you are interested in it, you can read a paper by
Frankel (2004) and the comments on the paper by Wang and others (2005) and
Frankel’s reply (2005). As discussed in the early email, what is of safety
concern in <st1:City w:st="on">Paducah</st1:City> is the large earthquakes
(M7-8) in the New Madrid or the ground motion generated by the earthquakes at <st1:City
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Paducah</st1:place></st1:City> with a 5-10 % PE
in 50 years (seismic risk). The risk (the ground motion with 2% PE in 50 years)
considered in the IRC-2000 is not consistent with the known risk (the ground
motion with 5-10% PE in 50 years) in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Paducah</st1:place></st1:City>.
This is the reason that <st1:City w:st="on">Paducah</st1:City> has a higher
design ground motion than that in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">San
Francisco</st1:place></st1:City>. After a long discussion, the ground motion
with a 1,000-year return period (the ground motion with 5% PE in 50 years of
the 1996 USGS national hazard maps) was selected as the design value for
KRC-2002 in western <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:place></st1:State>.
The main reasons for selecting the 1,000-year return period USGS hazard maps
(1996) are 1) the ground motion value is similar to the ground motion generated
by a scenario earthquake (M7.7) in the New Madrid, 2) satisfying federal
mandate (have to use the information produced by a federal agency). Currently, the
1996 USGS ground motion with 1,000-year return period is the design motion for
KRC-2006.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Thanks.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Zhenming <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center tabindex=-1>
</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'> WrightLa@usa.redcross.org
[mailto:WrightLa@usa.redcross.org] <br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Monday, January 14, 2008
12:27 PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> Wang, Zhenming<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b>
ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE:
[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] The balance</span></font><font size=3><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Dear Zhenming:</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>WRT hazard analysis and risk assessment in
the <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">St Louis</st1:place></st1:City>
area, the design requirements authors considered a number of credible hazards,
both natural and manmade, and included requirements to address or mitigate all
credible hazards. Seismic risk is only one of a number of risks that were
considered. Most of the design response to these hazards were not
dictated by building codes. </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>A blood bank, in some ways, is a unique
type of structure; a single blood processing facility may serve
hundreds of health care facilities. If the blood bank is not able to
deliver blood, any medical care that requires blood or blood products
cannot be delivered. In the context of the aftermath of a large
earthquake in the CUS, if a blood bank were not able to deliver blood products,
that would mean that many thousands of trauma patients would not receive
life-sustaining medical care.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>As you correctly point out, risk analysis
is a complex subject, and there is more to it than just dollars and cents.
It is perhaps as much art as science. We are, however, as an organization
that depends on our donors, compelled to ensure that we get the most bang for
our donated dollar. We are also an organization dedicated to preventing
human suffering, and I am certain that with the knowledge at hand that we have
done the best job we can to balance these organizational imperatives. But
as stated above, a blood bank is really a peripheral issue, considering the
relatively few blood banks in the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region>, when compared to the
thousands of structures and millions of people who could be affected by
an earthquake in the CUS.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>I regret that this side bar appears to be
on the way to derailing an interesting and informative discussion on risk
perception and public policy; could I hear some more about the specifics
of the code changes in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:place></st1:State>?.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>Laurence M. Wright</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>Senior Project Engineer</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>Manufacturing Engineering</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>202-303-4457 (o)</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>202-549-5843 (c)</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style='border:none;border-left:solid blue 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b>
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov [mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov]
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Wang, Zhenming<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Monday, January 14, 2008
9:19 AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> Wright, Laurence<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b>
ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re:
[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] The balance</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy;font-weight:bold;
font-style:italic'>[Wright, Laurence] </span></font></i></b><font size=2
color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'><snip></span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>It may not be wise to have higher seismic
design requirements for the new Red Cross blood center in the <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">St Louis</st1:place></st1:City> area (considering seismic risk
only). Other risks should also be considered. </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Thanks.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Zhenming</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><font size=2
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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