<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:x="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:excel" xmlns:dt="uuid:C2F41010-65B3-11d1-A29F-00AA00C14882" xmlns:st1="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"
xmlns:ns1="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml">
<head>
<meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii">
<meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 11 (filtered medium)">
<!--[if !mso]>
<style>
v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
w\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
</style>
<![endif]--><o:SmartTagType
namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="Street"/>
<o:SmartTagType namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
name="address"/>
<o:SmartTagType namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
name="PostalCode"/>
<o:SmartTagType namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
name="City"/>
<o:SmartTagType namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
name="PlaceType"/>
<o:SmartTagType namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
name="PlaceName"/>
<o:SmartTagType namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
name="place"/>
<o:SmartTagType namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
name="State"/>
<!--[if !mso]>
<style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#default#ieooui) }
</style>
<![endif]-->
<style>
<!--span.MSOENDNOTEREFERENCE
{mso-style-priority:99;}
p.MSOENDNOTETEXT
{mso-style-priority:99;}
li.MSOENDNOTETEXT
{mso-style-priority:99;}
div.MSOENDNOTETEXT
{mso-style-priority:99;}
a:link
{mso-style-priority:99;}
span.MSOHYPERLINK
{mso-style-priority:99;}
a:visited
{mso-style-priority:99;}
span.MSOHYPERLINKFOLLOWED
{mso-style-priority:99;}
span.ENDNOTETEXTCHAR
{mso-style-priority:99;}
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";}
span.MsoEndnoteReference
{vertical-align:super;}
p.MsoEndnoteText, li.MsoEndnoteText, div.MsoEndnoteText
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
p
{mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";}
span.endnotetextchar
{font-family:"Times New Roman";}
span.EmailStyle21
{mso-style-type:personal;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
color:windowtext;}
span.EmailStyle22
{mso-style-type:personal;
font-family:Arial;
color:navy;}
span.EmailStyle23
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:Arial;
color:navy;}
/* Page Definitions */
@page
{mso-endnote-separator:url("cid:header.htm\@01C8542A.EB00D8C0") es;
mso-endnote-continuation-separator:url("cid:header.htm\@01C8542A.EB00D8C0") ecs;}
@page Section1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.Section1
{page:Section1;}
-->
</style>
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]-->
</head>
<body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple>
<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>I agree with David that any mitigation
policy should be debated openly. But so far, many of the policies made for
seismic hazard mitigation are not based on scientific facts and open discussions.
The society makes mitigation policies based on risk, not hazard information. It
would be helpful for making sound seismic hazard mitigation policies if geo-scientists
and engineers can define and discuss the true seismic hazard and risk in the central
US.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Zhenming<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center tabindex=-1>
</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov
[mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov] <b><span
style='font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Rogers, David<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, January 09, 2008
6:01 PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> Joe Tomasello;
ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b> Seth Stein<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re:
[CEUS-earthquake-hazards] The balance</span></font><font size=3><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Joe <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>This isn’t a new issue; the CA
Seismic Safety Commission has had to deal with these kinds of issues for
years. The figure I’d be suspicious of is the $110 billion being
suggested by the California Healthcare Association, which is a trade
organization that lobbies for favorable legislation on behalf of hospital
owners and operators – many of which are wealthy corporations. They
consistently oppose legislation that mandates increased government regulations
or costs. They are the same organization that fought against hospitals being
required to have their own onsite power generation back in the early 1960s,
asserting that it would be cost-prohibitive and never be utilized sufficiently
to justify the costs, etc. etc. And they had numbers that
“proved” their case, because CA hadn’t experienced a sizable
earthquake near a metropolitan area between 1906-71 (the utilization
calculation would be very different today, esp. with the summertime power
brownouts). These sorts of organizations and lobbyists always throw out
huge dollar values to justify their cases – e.g. if you put that
regulation on us, it will put us out of business and it will costs billions and
billions of dollars, etc. etc. There will be a cost, but what that
actual cost will end up being is usually inflated significantly by trade
organizations when they are opposing proposed legislation. That’s
just the way the lobbying game is played.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>We’ve dealt with a similar, but
smaller issues here in Missouri, whenever legislation is proposed (almost every
year) to require skilled care and convalescent facilities to furnish onsite
remote power generation -- they spend huge amounts of money to repress
such legislation, asserting that it will “bankrupt” them and that
their facilities are “barely scrapping by” because their patient
fees are controlled by Medicare, etc., etc., etc. That’s what the
SAY anyway ….. but, when you see the slick lawyers doing their lobbying,
you sort of get the felling that SOMEBODY is making enough money in the skilled
care facility business to hire high-powered lobbyists….
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>So, there’s always two sides to
every tale. I would agree that, as engineers or planners, we should
always be examining the cost-benefit ratios. But, we should also realize
that the actual dollar losses incurred by a natural or man-caused disaster are
far beyond the figures predicted in FEMA models like HAZUS. Just look at the
economic impact of the 9/11 attacks; the two <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName
w:st="on">World</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Trade</st1:PlaceName>
<st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Center</st1:PlaceType></st1:place> towers are only a
tiny fraction of the actual economic loss caused by their collapse. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>So, these issues should be debated out in
the open, realizing that most people come to the table with specific
agendas…..In raising that issue, your concern is valid.
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Dave Rogers<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on"><font size=2
color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>Missouri</span></font></st1:State></st1:place><font size=2
color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'> Seismic Safety Commission<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<p><font size=2 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:navy'>J. David Rogers, Ph.D., P.E., R.G., C.E.G., C.H.G.<br>
Karl F. Hasselmann Chair in Geological Engineering<br>
Department of Geological Engineering<br>
129 McNutt Hall, <st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">1400 N. Bishop
Avenue</st1:address></st1:Street><br>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Missouri</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType
w:st="on">University</st1:PlaceType></st1:place> of Science & Technology<br>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Rolla</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">MO</st1:State>
<st1:PostalCode w:st="on">65409-0230</st1:PostalCode></st1:place><br>
(573) 341-6198 voice<br>
(573) 341-6935 fax<br>
E-mail: rogersda@mst.edu<br>
URL: www.mst.edu/~rogersda<br>
<br>
Formerly the University of Missouri-Rolla<br>
<br>
</span></font><font color=navy><span style='color:navy'> </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center tabindex=-1>
</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov [mailto:ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov]
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Joe Tomasello<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, January 09, 2008
1:51 PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b>
ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b> 'Seth Stein'<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [CEUS-earthquake-hazards]
The balance</span></font><font size=3><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>Buddy:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>I’d like to offer the following for your e-mail discussion group:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>Natural disasters such as earthquakes create complex situations for
policy makers. The difficulty lies in the balance between the costs of
mitigation and the actual risk. Failing this, policy makers could find
themselves dealing with unintended consequences such as those experienced by
the hospital industry in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>.
If it’s worth the expense in any one region it would be <st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State>;
but looking at the hospital industry in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>
we don’t see it.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>Earthquake risks in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>
are, to some degree, statistically predictable; being a near certainty that a
moderate to strong earthquake will occur somewhere on the west coast during a
single generation of the built environment. California attempted to balance
public safety with mandated seismic mitigation in a knee jerk reaction to the
1994 Northridge earthquake California’s Legislature passed Senate Bill
1953 (SB 1953). The bill was an unfunded mandate to retrofit, rebuild, or
close; a free lunch for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>
taxpayer. However, over the past decade the consequences of the mandate caused
a once sound hospital system transform into one of the nation’s foremost
financial basket cases.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>As in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>,
policy makers in the New Madrid Seismic Zone are led to believe that earthquake
mitigation costs are small, having little effect on the built environment. <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>’s
mitigation program entails retrofitting all acute care hospitals or re-building
nearly 70 million square feet. The pace of construction is limited to
approximately 1.5 million to 2 million square feet per year due in large part
to the ability of regulatory agencies to keep up. Furthermore it takes upward
of 10 years to design and build a new hospital. “The lengthy process
for review and approval of hospital construction and retrofitting projects is
far too long. Economic growth is being thwarted; jobs are being lost; and
patient safety is being compromised.”<a style='mso-endnote-id:edn1'
href="#_edn1" name="_ednref1" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[i]</sup></span></a>
The result is that it will take nearly 30 years to complete all the
construction required by SB 1953. <a style='mso-endnote-id:edn2' href="#_edn2"
name="_ednref2" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[ii]</sup></span></a>
The extended deadline is 2013.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>The size and scope of most of these projects are very large and
expensive. Compliance could cost <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>
hospitals as much as $110 billion dollars. The original estimate assumed
that the number of patients and the number of beds would generally remain the
same. However, modern design standards are most effective with facilities
35% to 60% larger<a style='mso-endnote-id:edn3' href="#_edn3" name="_ednref3"
title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[iii]</sup></span></a>. Thus, the
scope of each construction project will increase as will the overall cost;
perhaps as much as 20%. <a style='mso-endnote-id:edn4' href="#_edn4"
name="_ednref4" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[iv]</sup></span></a>
In <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>
construction costs are rising at an annual rate of more than 14 percent above
the Consumer Price Index resulting in construction costs more than 40 percent
higher for comparable facilities in other states.<a style='mso-endnote-id:edn5'
href="#_edn5" name="_ednref5" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[v]</sup></span></a>
In my view this increase is likely to continue do to regulatory oversight, the
limited number of qualified contractors, as well as the annual inflation of
material costs. In <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>,
a fully furnished and equipped acute care facility (labor and materials) costs
$1,000 per square foot. Since the SB 1953 mandates affect for-profit,
non-profit and publicly owned organizations most all projects will be
financed. Depending on the terms of the loan the cost in current dollars
for an acute care facility the square foot cost can exceed $2,800;
comparatively normal office construction in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State
w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State></st1:place> is roughly a third the cost per
square foot.</span></font><font size=3><span style='font-size:12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>Looking at FEMA’s annualized earthquake losses<a
style='mso-endnote-id:edn6' href="#_edn6" name="_ednref6" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[vi]</sup></span></a> we find the relationship
of Cost vs. Benefit even more lopsided. FEMA reports that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State
w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place> will experience a loss of
approximately $3,167.5/$Million of infrastructure each year as a result of
earthquakes. Looking at the same 50 year period, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State
w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place> can expect to lose approximately
15.8% of the present value of hospitals. Thus, California’s acute care
infrastructure, worth approximately $48 Billion [my estimate - C. Duane Dauner,
President and Chief Executive Officer, California Healthcare Association,
Statement “Heath Care Scene in California,” May 10, 2001, suggested
24 Billion.], should expect a loss of approximately $7.6 Billion due to
earthquake. We find that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>
is spending $110 Billion to offset a loss of $7.6 Billion; a cost benefit relationship
greater than 14. </span></font><font size=3><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Over
the past 10 years, we’ve asked FEMA for a </span></font>Cost vs. Benefit
analysis for the New Madrid Seismic Zone. So far we haven’t seen
anything that would come close to suggesting that the public would benefit
spending limited resources. <font size=3><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>There are a more subtle negative consequences resulting from forcing
acute care facilities to close because they don’t meet mandated
requirements. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>
is experiencing a critical closure of hospitals with the closure of over 50
hospitals in the 10 year period between 1995 and 2005. More than 3,000 acute
care beds have been removed from service between 2001 and 2005. In the five
year period prior (1995 to 1999) 23 hospitals closed. Unfunded mandated seismic
requirements are creating a stampede for funding, usually in the form of
bonds. The median credit ratio of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>
hospitals had nosed dived to the junk-bond status. The money needed to
retro fit <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>
hospitals is drying up. <a style='mso-endnote-id:edn7' href="#_edn7"
name="_ednref7" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[vii]</sup></span></a>
“Nobody can bear the burden [of SB 1953 unfunded mandate]”<a
style='mso-endnote-id:edn8' href="#_edn8" name="_ednref8" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[viii]</sup></span></a> Here in the New
Madrid Seismic Zone we’re told that the cost is minimal. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>“Seismic upgrades are important. But mandating them during the
worst economic time in the history of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>
hospitals is like ordering a homeowner to fix a dilapidated porch on a house
that's on fire. Right idea. Wrong time.”<a style='mso-endnote-id:edn9'
href="#_edn9" name="_ednref9" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup>[ix]</sup></span></a>
How many doctors and nurses could have been hired in lieu of spending the money
on hospital infrastructure? Just how many lives will be saved? How many lives
will be lost because of the loss of acute care facilities? Who pays, the
bottomless pocket of the taxpayer? Each of the 35 million people in <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place> will need to
pay $3,143 (per capita state and local taxes were roughly $1,600 in 1996).
Are the people of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>
going to be willing to forfeit three times their current tax burden? <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'>If the benefits (reduction of earthquake related economic loss or lives
lost) don’t outweigh the costs in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State></st1:place>,
how can they be justified in the New Madrid Seismic Zone? <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>Joseph Tomasello, PE</span></font></b><font
size=3><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on"><b><font
size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;font-weight:
bold'>5880 Ridge Bend Rd.</span></font></b></st1:address></st1:Street><font
size=3><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on"><b><font size=3
face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>Memphis</span></font></b></st1:City><b><font
size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;font-weight:
bold'>, <st1:State w:st="on">TN</st1:State> <st1:PostalCode w:st="on">38120</st1:PostalCode></span></font></b></st1:place><font
size=3><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>Phone:</span></font></b><font size=3><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>(901) 761-2016 office</span></font></b><font
size=3><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>(901) 821-4968 direct</span></font></b><font
size=3><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>(901) 412-8217 mobile</span></font></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><br clear=all>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=1 width="33%" align=left>
</span></font></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><br clear=all>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<div>
<div class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=1 width="33%" align=left>
</span></font></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><br clear=all>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<div class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=1 width="33%" align=left>
</span></font></div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><br clear=all>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=1 width="33%" align=left>
</span></font></div>
</div>
</div>
<div style='mso-element:endnote-list'><br clear=all>
<hr align=left size=1 width="33%">
<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn1>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn1' href="#_ednref1"
name="_edn1" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup><font size=2
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[i]</span></font></sup></span></a>
California Heathcare Association Statement on the Hospital Construction Plan Review
and Area Compliance Process before the California Performance Review
Commission, U.C. Riverside, August 13, 2004.</p>
</div>
<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn2>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn2' href="#_ednref2"
name="_edn2" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup><font size=2
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[ii]</span></font></sup></span></a>
Ibid., 4</p>
</div>
<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn3>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn3' href="#_ednref3"
name="_edn3" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup><font size=2
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[iii]</span></font></sup></span></a>
Ibid., 41</p>
</div>
<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn4>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn4' href="#_ednref4"
name="_edn4" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup><font size=2
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[iv]</span></font></sup></span></a>
Ibid., 8</p>
</div>
<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn5>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn5' href="#_ednref5"
name="_edn5" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup><font size=2
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[v]</span></font></sup></span></a>
Ibid., 30</p>
</div>
<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn6>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn6' href="#_ednref6"
name="_edn6" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup><font size=2
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[vi]</span></font></sup></span></a>
FEMA 366 Hazus 99 Estimated Annualized Earthquake Losses for the United
States, February 2001, 16</p>
</div>
<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn7>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn7' href="#_ednref7"
name="_edn7" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup><font size=2
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[vii]</span></font></sup></span></a>
California HealthCare Foundation, The Financial Health of California Hospitals,
June 2007, 2-13</p>
</div>
<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn8>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn8' href="#_ednref8"
name="_edn8" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup><font size=2
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[viii]</span></font></sup></span></a>
Ibid., (interviews with key unnamed health care leaders), B-6</p>
</div>
<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn9>
<p class=MsoEndnoteText><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn9' href="#_ednref9"
name="_edn9" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><sup><font size=2
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[ix]</span></font></sup></span></a>
The Press Democrat, Another hospital falls, what killed Sutter Medical Center
– and what will it mean to families like mine, January 14, 2007</p>
</div>
</div>
</body>
</html>