<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:x="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:excel" xmlns:dt="uuid:C2F41010-65B3-11d1-A29F-00AA00C14882" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">
<head>
<meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii">
<meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 12 (filtered medium)">
<!--[if !mso]>
<style>
v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
w\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
</style>
<![endif]-->
<style>
<!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
p
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
tt
{mso-style-priority:99;
font-family:"Courier New";}
span.EmailStyle19
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:#1F497D;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;}
@page Section1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.Section1
{page:Section1;}
-->
</style>
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]-->
</head>
<body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple>
<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;color:#1F497D'>To all:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;color:#1F497D'>In response to
Arts comments:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;color:#1F497D'>Local policy
makers in Memphis were fully aware of both sides of the argument. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;color:#1F497D'>We’ve
reviewed a 10 story eccentrically braced system centered in Shelby County and we
came to different conclusions, base shear with 99SBC was less than 03IBC amended
with 10%PE (applied force was greater in 99 SBC compared to 03 IBC). Can you
share your calculations with us?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;color:#1F497D'>In my opinion, the
code amendments adopted by local policy makers efficiently address Memphian’s
seismic safety concerns. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Joseph
Tomasello, PE</span></b><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>5880
Ridge Bend Rd.</span></b><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Memphis,
TN 38120</span></b><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> Arthur D Frankel [mailto:afrankel@usgs.gov]
<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Thursday, January 10, 2008 5:53 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> Joe Tomasello<br>
<b>Cc:</b> ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov;
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov; 'Seth Stein'<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [CEUS-earthquake-hazards] The balance<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
12.0pt;margin-left:.5in'><br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Joe,</span> <br>
<br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>
Due to your efforts with Seth Stein, the building code in Memphis now
allows for non-essential 10-story buildings to be built to a force level 45%
lower than that stipulated in the Standard Building Code that was used in
Memphis up through 2005. This newly allowed design level is substantially
lower than the median ground motions expected for a repeat of the 1811-12
earthquakes and lower than the intensities reported in Memphis for the 1843
Marked Tree, Arkansas earthquake (magnitude 6). </span><br>
<br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> So you
succeeded in lowering seismic building codes in Memphis. Perhaps
you would like to make this fact clear to the people living in Memphis and see
what their views on this are. </span> <br>
<br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>-Art</span> <br>
<br>
<br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Art Frankel<br>
U.S. Geological Survey<br>
MS 966, Box 25046<br>
DFC<br>
Denver, CO 80225<br>
phone: 303-273-8556<br>
fax: 303-273-8600<br>
email: afrankel@usgs.gov</span> <br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%"
style='width:100.0%;margin-left:.5in'>
<tr>
<td width="40%" valign=top style='width:40.02%;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>"Joe
Tomasello" <JT@ReavesFirm.com></span></b><span style='font-size:
7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> </span><br>
<span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Sent by:
ceus-earthquake-hazards-bounces@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov</span> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>01/09/2008
12:51 PM</span> <o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td width="59%" valign=top style='width:59.04%;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
<table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%"
style='width:100.0%'>
<tr>
<td valign=top style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>To</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td valign=top style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><ceus-earthquake-hazards@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov></span>
<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign=top style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>cc</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td valign=top style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>'Seth
Stein' <seth@earth.northwestern.edu></span> <o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign=top style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Subject</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td valign=top style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>[CEUS-earthquake-hazards]
The balance</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellpadding=0>
<tr>
<td valign=top style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'></td>
<td valign=top style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'></td>
</tr>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
12.0pt;margin-left:.5in'><br>
<br>
<br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Buddy:</span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'>I’d like to offer the following for your
e-mail discussion group:</span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Natural disasters such as earthquakes create
complex situations for policy makers. The difficulty lies in the balance
between the costs of mitigation and the actual risk. Failing this, policy
makers could find themselves dealing with unintended consequences such as those
experienced by the hospital industry in California. If it’s worth
the expense in any one region it would be California; but looking at the
hospital industry in California we don’t see it.</span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Earthquake risks in California are, to some
degree, statistically predictable; being a near certainty that a moderate to
strong earthquake will occur somewhere on the west coast during a single
generation of the built environment. California attempted to balance public
safety with mandated seismic mitigation in a knee jerk reaction to the 1994
Northridge earthquake California’s Legislature passed Senate Bill 1953
(SB 1953). The bill was an unfunded mandate to retrofit, rebuild, or close; a
free lunch for California taxpayer. However, over the past decade the
consequences of the mandate caused a once sound hospital system transform into
one of the nation’s foremost financial basket cases.</span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'>As in California, policy makers in the New
Madrid Seismic Zone are led to believe that earthquake mitigation costs are
small, having little effect on the built environment. California’s
mitigation program entails retrofitting all acute care hospitals or re-building
nearly 70 million square feet. The pace of construction is limited to
approximately 1.5 million to 2 million square feet per year due in large part
to the ability of regulatory agencies to keep up. Furthermore it takes upward
of 10 years to design and build a new hospital. “The lengthy
process for review and approval of hospital construction and retrofitting
projects is far too long. Economic growth is being thwarted; jobs are being
lost; and patient safety is being compromised.”</span><a href="#_edn1"><sup><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'>[i]</span></sup></a><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>
The result is that it will take nearly 30 years to complete all the
construction required by SB 1953. </span><a href="#_edn2"><sup><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'>[ii]</span></sup></a><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>
The extended deadline is 2013.</span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'>The size and scope of most of these projects are
very large and expensive. Compliance could cost California hospitals as
much as $110 billion dollars. The original estimate assumed that the
number of patients and the number of beds would generally remain the same.
However, modern design standards are most effective with facilities 35%
to 60% larger</span><a href="#_edn3"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[iii]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'>. Thus, the scope of each construction project will
increase as will the overall cost; perhaps as much as 20%. </span><a
href="#_edn4"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[iv]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> In California construction costs are rising at an
annual rate of more than 14 percent above the Consumer Price Index resulting in
construction costs more than 40 percent higher for comparable facilities in
other states.</span><a href="#_edn5"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[v]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> In my view this increase is likely to continue do to
regulatory oversight, the limited number of qualified contractors, as well as
the annual inflation of material costs. In California, a fully furnished and
equipped acute care facility (labor and materials) costs $1,000 per square
foot. Since the SB 1953 mandates affect for-profit, non-profit and
publicly owned organizations most all projects will be financed.
Depending on the terms of the loan the cost in current dollars for an
acute care facility the square foot cost can exceed $2,800; comparatively
normal office construction in Tennessee is roughly a third the cost per square
foot.</span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Looking at FEMA’s annualized earthquake
losses</span><a href="#_edn6"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[vi]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> we find the relationship of Cost vs. Benefit even
more lopsided. FEMA reports that California will experience a loss of
approximately $3,167.5/$Million of infrastructure each year as a result of
earthquakes. Looking at the same 50 year period, California can expect to lose
approximately 15.8% of the present value of hospitals. Thus, California’s
acute care infrastructure, worth approximately $48 Billion [my estimate - C.
Duane Dauner, President and Chief Executive Officer, California Healthcare
Association, Statement “Heath Care Scene in California,” May 10,
2001, suggested 24 Billion.], should expect a loss of approximately $7.6
Billion due to earthquake. We find that California is spending $110 Billion to
offset a loss of $7.6 Billion; a cost benefit relationship greater than 14.
</span>Over the past 10 years, we’ve asked FEMA for a <span
style='font-size:10.0pt'>Cost vs. Benefit analysis for the New Madrid Seismic
Zone. So far we haven’t seen anything that would come close to
suggesting that the public would benefit spending limited resources. </span><br>
<br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'>There are a more subtle negative consequences
resulting from forcing acute care facilities to close because they don’t
meet mandated requirements. California is experiencing a critical closure
of hospitals with the closure of over 50 hospitals in the 10 year period
between 1995 and 2005. More than 3,000 acute care beds have been removed from
service between 2001 and 2005. In the five year period prior (1995 to 1999) 23
hospitals closed. Unfunded mandated seismic requirements are creating a
stampede for funding, usually in the form of bonds. The median credit ratio
of California hospitals had nosed dived to the junk-bond status. The
money needed to retro fit California hospitals is drying up. </span><a
href="#_edn7"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[vii]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> “Nobody can bear the burden [of SB 1953
unfunded mandate]”</span><a href="#_edn8"><sup><span style='font-size:
10.0pt'>[viii]</span></sup></a><span style='font-size:10.0pt'> Here in
the New Madrid Seismic Zone we’re told that the cost is minimal. </span><br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'>“Seismic upgrades are important. But
mandating them during the worst economic time in the history of California
hospitals is like ordering a homeowner to fix a dilapidated porch on a house
that's on fire. Right idea. Wrong time.”</span><a href="#_edn9"><sup><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'>[ix]</span></sup></a><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>
How many doctors and nurses could have been hired in lieu of spending the money
on hospital infrastructure? Just how many lives will be saved? How many lives
will be lost because of the loss of acute care facilities? Who pays, the
bottomless pocket of the taxpayer? Each of the 35 million people in California
will need to pay $3,143 (per capita state and local taxes were roughly $1,600
in 1996). Are the people of California going to be willing to forfeit
three times their current tax burden? </span><br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'>If the benefits (reduction of earthquake related
economic loss or lives lost) don’t outweigh the costs in California, how
can they be justified in the New Madrid Seismic Zone? </span><br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span> <br>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span> <br>
<b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Joseph Tomasello, PE</span></b>
<br>
<b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>5880 Ridge Bend Rd.</span></b>
<br>
<b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Memphis, TN 38120</span></b> <br>
<br>
<b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Phone:</span></b> <br>
<b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>(901) 761-2016 office</span></b>
<br>
<b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>(901) 821-4968 direct</span></b>
<br>
<b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>(901) 412-8217 mobile</span></b>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='margin-left:.5in;text-align:center'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
12.0pt;margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='margin-left:.5in;text-align:center'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
12.0pt;margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='margin-left:.5in;text-align:center'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
12.0pt;margin-left:.5in'><br>
<a href="#_ednref1"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[i]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> California Heathcare Association Statement on the
Hospital Construction Plan Review and Area Compliance Process before the
California Performance Review Commission, U.C. Riverside, August 13, 2004.</span>
<br>
<a href="#_ednref2"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[ii]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> Ibid., 4</span> <br>
<a href="#_ednref3"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[iii]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> Ibid., 41</span> <br>
<a href="#_ednref4"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[iv]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> Ibid., 8</span> <br>
<a href="#_ednref5"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[v]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> Ibid., 30</span> <br>
<a href="#_ednref6"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[vi]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> FEMA 366 Hazus 99 Estimated Annualized
Earthquake Losses for the United States, February 2001, 16</span> <br>
<a href="#_ednref7"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[vii]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> California HealthCare Foundation, The Financial
Health of California Hospitals, June 2007, 2-13</span> <br>
<a href="#_ednref8"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[viii]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> Ibid., (interviews with key unnamed health care
leaders), B-6</span> <br>
<a href="#_ednref9"><sup><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>[ix]</span></sup></a><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'> The Press Democrat, Another hospital falls, what
killed Sutter Medical Center – and what will it mean to families like
mine, January 14, 2007</span><tt><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>_______________________________________________</span></tt><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><br>
<tt>CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards mailing list</tt><br>
<tt>CEUS-Earthquake-Hazards@geohazards.cr.usgs.gov</tt><br>
<tt>http://geohazards.cr.usgs.gov/mailman/listinfo/ceus-earthquake-hazards</tt></span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</body>
</html>